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this post was submitted on 21 Sep 2024
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Yes, the atmospheric CO2 is still rising due to emissions from previous decades.
The decline mentioned in the title is the current emmisions. The article goes on to explain it like this:
Locally, Europe and America have lowered their emmisions in the recent years, but global emmisions have still rised due to China emitting even more.
This June however, China's emmisions have also decreased, so it might be a sign of a peak being reached.
Energy consumption is still increasing, but renewable sources provide enough for that, and it's economical the best option, so the rising demand does not cause more emmisions.
Personally, I'm afraid it is too soon to tell. I also wonder where all the drilled oil and mined coal goes, because if there is an actual decline in fossil fuel usage, we'd be hearing from the oil companies and experience lower gas prices etc. Any fossil that is mined or pumped up is going to get burned, so I'd really like to see a decline in fossil extractions before celebrating.
Also, in order to address the atmospheric CO2 levels, we need something entirely different. Forests and CO2 capture etc., which have a long way to go still.
Tell me you don’t understand atmospheric CO2 without saying you don’t understand it.
Atmospheric CO2 represents the immediate, real-time, zero-delay composition of the atmosphere. As in, the current value is what currently exists.
And an acceleration curve in that value means that CO2 production is still increasing. if the curve is curving up, more CO2 is being released today than had been released yesterday.
https://lemmy.ca/pictrs/image/f46a3bf9-388a-4cac-92ff-0604e402c291.png
Once that curve points downwards over more than a year or so, then I will become cautiously optimistic. Until then, I will not submit myself to counterproductive hopium.
There is a slight complexity to this as methane breaks down into CO2 over a period of about 20 years, in the meantime it contributes a higher warming effect. But there is a measure called CO2e which is the equivalent including the other green house gases and it too has been accelerating so it doesn't change the point its just there are some prior emission impacts on current CO2 in the atmosphere.
Say you don’t understand emissions measuring without actually saying you don’t understand emissions measuring.
Past emissions only place emissions up to a value. Current emissions are what determine whether our emissions output is continuing to accelerate, or are actually slowing down.
And yesterday’s emissions continue to be smaller than today’s emissions. That is why it’s called accelerating emissions.
Not necessarily true. According to the article, it's quite possible that yesterday's emissions are the same as today's emissions. Meaning, we've stopped increasing emissions.
Until that graph curves over, it isn’t true.
Evidence trumps wishes and fantasies. I refuse to get ensnared by hopium.
It's a prediction. We don't have accurate data for the current year.
And predictions mean absolutely nothing until the evidence is in.
Problem is, people frequently celebrate predictions, and build policy with those predictions. That’s called jumping the gun.
Keep your panties on, no one is making policy based on this report. At most, people are viewing it with cautious optimism.