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Weak polar vortex gives hints of what to expect this winter
(ingallswx.com)
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this post was submitted on 16 Sep 2024
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Fair enough. Certainly true on La Niña fostering conditions for SSW events due to the change in planetary wave propagation. I’m not sold on the very, very early development of the polar vortex being a predictor though. That said, if your forecast holds, I’d be interested in revisiting this conversation. I’ve bookmarked your page and will reach out in the spring if you are correct. We can discuss it further.
Even if it’s wrong I’m interested in discussing it further. I want to improve professionally as much as anyone else does and I appreciate the comments you’ve added.
My science falls more on the mesosphere/stratosphere side from space weather effects (top down rather than bottom up). However, SSW events are fascinating phenomena and have profound impacts on potentially all layers of the atmosphere. I’m currently developing (with lots of help) a high-top forecasting model that extends from the surface to the thermosphere. Forecasting SSW events are something we are hoping to improve with this model having a fully resolved mesosphere. I’ll edit my original post as I was hard on your article. I’ll also DM you my email and we can chat further.
This sounds awesome and I look forward to hearing more about it. It seems like this would be a major step forward especially with medium-range forecasts.