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Don’t Fall for the Third-Party Trick
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this post was submitted on 13 Sep 2024
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You’re looking at things through there lens of 1 election cycle.
If a third party that’s against the genocide Israel is carrying out gets say 5% of voters in deep blue or deep red states would that not be a signal to the democrats that they should change their stance before the next election?
In a completely uncontested race? Totally fine with voting 3rd party to send a message to the Democrats.
That's not what we're talking about here. When the alternative candidate in a tight race is from a party whose goal is to abandon democracy altogether, that 5% is absolutely critical. In order to "send a message" to the Democrats, you give the GOP the ability to limit democracy even further for the next election. If there even is another election. And the Democrats can't implement the changes you want to see even if they wanted to because they lack the power from losing the election. That's a ridiculous trade-off.
No. If 5% of my voting base sits out over a single issue, I'm going to lose my interest in trying to triangulate their support and move in another direction to identify a more persuadable bloc of voters. That goes more if the abandonment is repetitive, and if the issues constantly change, or if the issue is something I can't bend on for electoral reasons.
If one bloc of voters is easier to please than another, then I'm moving in their direction, even if it's rightward. Unfortunately it's winner-take-all, and you're either in power or you're not. There are no half-wins.
Not funding and supplying a genocide seems to be a pretty clear and easy issue to change especially when 60%+ of democrats are in favor of it. We’re already violating our own laws by continuing to do so.
The democrats are already moving to the right even with the left continuing to vote for them. They think they can win over some centrists republicans (even though they can’t in a meaningful number) by adopting right wing policies while not losing the left because at the moment they know votes are guaranteed because “republicans worse”.
Having voters in areas that effectively don’t matter this cycle show there displeasure in the genocide we’re enabling is the least we can do to counter it.
I don't think they think that. I think we've swallowed that lie hook, line and sinker for 40 years and they will keep throwing the same bait as long as we keep biting while they keep moving right.
Oh I agree, but that’s was a whole other can of worms I wasn’t trying to get into at the moment since I’ve got a busy and long work day that’s still not over unfortunately lol
I hear you. Thanks for the reply.
I directly answered your question, and you seem to have ignored what I said. Plus you really should reexamine your assumptions about the importance of Gaza, the "ease" of withdrawing support, how much Democrats have moved rightward, and how many centrist Republicans vote for Democrats.
Your level of frustration with the process is inversely proportional to your awareness of these trends, of which Democratic leaders are likely well aware. Moreover, you seem to be valuing the strongly-held opinions of voters in non-swing states (what you're calling "deep blue states" or "areas that effectively don't matter") more highly than the maybe-less-strongly held opinions of voters in swing states. If 5% of Democratic voters in California want sushi, and 5% of Democratic voters in Pennsylvania want steak, I'm picking steak and telling the California voters to take a hike. Their opinion doesn't even register on my radar thanks to the electoral consequences of pissing off the Pennsylvanians who wanted steak.
I didn't ignore what you said. My retort to
Was that if it's a clear issue like the genocide Israel is carrying out that has a lot of strong opposition to the Democrats current position it really isn't all that hard to triangulate what the cause is.
It's been known it's THE issue the democrats are losing support for given the coverage of the non committed movement. As for how tough it is to It's literally not support a genocide that's how you please that group. It's literally following our current laws to not supply and fund a country committing a genocide.
Literally from your own link "though some questioned whether it would push them not to vote at all." In a thread where people are complaining about a small amount of people voting third party could lose the election for democrats in swing states I guess it is an important issue if it's driving even some people in swing states to not vote.
Also when the non committed movement has more support in some states than the margin of victory in 2020 I would say it's pretty important.
So genocide is alright as long as they're an enemy of Iran, that's your argument? Israel is literally the one escalating the situation in the area, pulling their support or at least threatening to do so until the genocide is stopped would actually deescalate the situation in the region.
I don't disagree they've moved left on most social issues when looking at at that long of a time span that's in the article you linked. I'm talking this election cycle Kamala has clearly shifted right from the policies she ran on in 2016.
In 1 election, that's the sample size. That's not a trend and it's against Trump who is an historically awful candidate for moderates to try and stomach. They'll be back voting R once he's gone so it's not a good long term strategy when you're alienating what should be your base to the point their considering not voting or voting third party.
You completely misunderstood what my example was trying to get across. I'm not valuing non swing state voters opinions more than swing state voters.
I understand that the swing state voters are going to have an outsized role in what each party pushes. Tactically I would be saying the voters in swing states especially should be witholding their vote unless the democrats stop supporting Israel's genocide since it would be more leverage but obviously trump getting elected isn't a great alternative which is why I didn't mention that since that's a risk.
What I was saying is that given that non swing states you can safely vote third party to show your displeasure in the genocide we're supporting and possibly shed light that it's got a large amount of importance to voters.
Edit: formatting since I’m on mobile and at work.