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this post was submitted on 12 Aug 2024
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What the others said plus Ukraine has gotten pretty good at setting up defensive lines that become meat grinders for Russian attacks. The Russian offensive is winding down in Ukraine, which means they are settling in and won't be using up as many resources and they'll get to play the defensive game with Ukraine coming at them instead. If they can hold what they have, they might get to keep it if Ukraine eventually gives up, so they can bide their time on offensives.
By taking some territory from Russia, they can't just dig in and hold it, they need to retake that land, so Ukraine can set up the meat grinders there to keep Russian manpower and resource losses high. Also, Ukraine can set up a more elastic defense because holding that land isn't as important as defending their own territory. Pulling back tactically doesn't mean that Putin will control the fate of a Ukrainian settlement in the area given up.
Plus, all they need to do is treat any settlements they do take decently and Putin might lose popular support since their whole justification for the invasion is that the Ukrainians are as evil now as the Nazis were.
Also, due to the shape of the geography, Russia has more space it needs to defend from random attacks like this than Ukraine does. Sure, the border is the same length on both sides, but it's easier to centralize in a convex area than a concave area. If you're in a convex area, you can travel straight to areas of interest on the border. If you're in a concave area, you need to go around things to get to any spot on the border.
So Ukraine could have one force that could attack in a number of places or respond to defend while Putin would have to stretch a similar force out more to be able to respond just as fast or move it more to set up an attack (which then would have fewer options for where to attack).
I just hope they are setting something up with the people of Belarus. It would be both awesome and hilarious to see Belarus get liberated with the help of Ukraine in the middle of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Also, Ukraine being able to do this isn't a great sign for Russia's preparedness for WWIII. If things go in that direction, Putin will be at risk of becoming China's puppet in the best case scenarios for him.