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this post was submitted on 12 Aug 2024
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In the wider war yes. This move will force Russia to pull units from reserve lines in other areas of conflict, therefore weakening the lines they come from. It will contribute to diminishing their manpower capabilities as they are capturing large numbers of Russian soldiers during this operation.
Most importantly though it gives Ukraine a bargaining chip at the peace table. If they have territory that Russia REALLY REALLY wants back then they will be more willing to cede territory back to Ukraine in exchange. Taking and holding these territories is a massive win for Ukraine.
Yeah, I think if they can hold it, it makes a lot of sense.
I would add that I imagine that it's also a pretty strong psychological strike against the morale of Russian soldiers.
Personally, I'm typically outside the mainstream on the war in Ukraine (I'm more skeptical of the unquestioning supply of aid by the US than most people), but I think that strategically, this makes plenty of sense. And as much as I really hate war or loss of life even by the aggressors, I can't help but wish to see the kind of progress that forces Russia to end this insane, disgusting folly of an invasion as quickly as possible.
Putting the war on the doorstep of Russian citizens is another way that Ukraine can pressure them into going to the peace table. If Putin doesn't do something about this then he will face a massive wave of dissent. He has probably already lost a lot of influence due to this happening.