That's 2 if's. Sure, IF both of those things were true, maybe it would net out, but still be a paperwork and cashflow delay for the company (pay the duty today, get the money back at some point in the future) which sucks liquidity out of the market and generally holds back growth and investment.
But that isn't particularly relevant since neither of those two things will ever happen. The tax cuts will go to the top earners, and retaliatory tariffs are very much a thing and cannot be ignored.
Look at the link - does it have a token on it to identify that particular survey invitation as the one they sent you? I'd wager that's what happened rather than it being some deeper tracking. A stock standard survey monkey survey can do the same thing.