Voroxpete

joined 2 years ago
[–] Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works 7 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I assume by "thinking engine" you mean "Reasoning AI".

Reasoning AI is just more bullshit. What happens is that they produce the output the way they always do - by guessing at a sequence of words that is statistically adjacent to the input they're given - but then what they do is produce a randomly generated "Chain of thought" which is invented in the same way as the result; just pure statistical word association. Essentially they create the output the same way that a non-reasoning LLM does, then they give r themselves the prompt "Write a chain of thought for this output." There's a little extra stuff going on where they sort of check their own output, but in essence that's just done by running the model multiple times and picking the output they converge on. So, just weighting the randomness, basically.

I'm simplifying a lot here obviously, but that's pretty much what's going on.

[–] Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works 94 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (22 children)

Aren’t they processing high quality data from multiple sources?

Here's where the misunderstanding comes in, I think. And it's not the high quality data or the multiple sources. It's the "processing" part.

It's a natural human assumption to imagine that a thinking machine with access to a huge repository of data would have little trouble providing useful and correct answers. But the mistake here is in treating these things as thinking machines.

That's understandable. A multi-billion dollar propaganda machine has been set up to sell you that lie.

In reality, LLMs are word prediction machines. They try to predict the words that would likely follow other words. They're really quite good at it. The underlying technology is extremely impressive, allowing them to approximate human conversation in a way that is quite uncanny.

But what you have to grasp is that you're not interacting with something that thinks. There isn't even an attempt to approximate a mind. Rather, what you have is a confabulation engine; a machine for producing plausible fictions. It does this by creating unbelievably huge matrices of words - literally operating in billions of dimensions at once, graphs with many times more axes than we have letters - and probabilistically associating them with each other. It's all very clever, but what it produces is 100% fake, made up, totally invented.

Now, because of the training data they've been fed, those made up answers will, depending on the question, sometimes ends up being right. For certain types of question they can actually be right quite a lot of the time. For other types of question, almost never. But the point is, they're only ever right by accident. The "AI" is always, always constructing a fiction. That fiction just sometimes aligns with reality.

[–] Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works 181 points 2 days ago

He's not accepting donations for the fines, but he is raising money to create an advert that will spread positive messages for trans youth. This guy fucking rules.

https://www.gofundme.com/f/z3tp3t-queer-grandpa-makes-a-commercial-for-lgbtq-teens

[–] Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works 26 points 2 days ago (2 children)

That doesn't seem to bother OpenAI insiders, though, who hope to be bringing in $125 billion in annual revenue by 2029.

To hit that kind of revenue they would need to convince 5% of the world's population to spend $20 a month on a chatbot. Netflix has barely managed to reach about two thirds of that subscriber number, and they offer a whole-ass streaming service. Obviously OpenAI can supplement consumer sales with enterprise and API access, but so far they're doing a very bad job of that.

But even if they did hit those numbers, they'd still be running at a loss. By their own admission their product isn't even profitable at $200 a month. More customers won't make you more money when everything you sell is a loss leader.

[–] Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works 25 points 3 days ago

There's no way they actually retrained it for this, that would be much too expensive. They're just editing the initial prompt to convince it to act more "right wing" and it's performing the assignment to the best of its ability. The problem is that a chat-bot doesn't understand context, so it just plays the character it's been given as full mask off all the time, and as a result you get this.

[–] Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works 3 points 5 days ago

Fits with their dartboard capitalization.

[–] Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works 4 points 5 days ago

Aaaaand I just found my Wife's birthday present, thank you!

[–] Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works 4 points 5 days ago* (last edited 5 days ago)

I'm being somewhat facetious, obviously, but in all seriousness Musk's infinite money is heavily dependent on Tesla's share price, as it comprises the vast majority of his wealth, and Tesla's share price is hilariously overinflated. By market cap they're the 11th biggest company in the world, which is a fundamentally broken valuation for a perfectly average car manufacturer.

I mean, let's put this in perspective; Tesla, by market cap, is worth thirty times as much as Hyundai. Tesla sold 1.8 million cars in 2024, Hyundai sold 4 million.

Nothing about that makes sense. Tesla's share price is propped up by nothing but irrational, delusional belief. It's not quite South Seas Company levels of bubble, but damn if it isn't close. That creates a massive danger for Musk. If Hyundai's share price dips, it climbs back up because they make cars people want, and they make a yearly revenue equal to three times their market cap. Those are solid fundamentals. If Tesla's share price dips, it climbs back up because a delusional cult decides to keep digging deeper, but every time it does there's always that danger that the cult might finally go "Hey, wait a minute?" If that share price crashes it will crash hard, and there's very little reason to believe that it would ever recover. Tesla, by all means, could continue to be a $40bn company like Hyundai (and that's frankly being generous), but their only hope of continuing to be a $1.2tn company is this weird investor Mexican standoff where the party keeps going as long as nobody blinks. This is some crypto bro diamond hands only HODL levels of insanity, and it cannot last forever.

Do I believe Musk absolutely will pussy out just because the Tesla share price gets yippy? No, I was being hyperbolic, I'm not actually putting money on it. But do I think he could? Absolutely.

[–] Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works 22 points 5 days ago (5 children)

Dammit. I actually thought there was a chance he might split the vote on the right. Now he'll pussy out and walk the whole thing back to protect his precious share price.

[–] Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works 10 points 6 days ago (1 children)

Pontypoole is a superb indie horror movie set in a small town community radio station during a zombie outbreak. I hate most zombie movies, and I love that movie. One of the most unique takes on the genre I've ever seen.

In terms of more well known Canadian directors, David Cronenberg and Denis Villeneuve are both absolute masters. A significant chunk of Cronenberg's ouvre is made by Canadian studios, as is all of Villeneuve's work before Prisoners. I recommend giving Enemy a look, it's brilliantly weird.

[–] Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works 1 points 6 days ago (1 children)

This is really cool. I maintain a lot of systems that have to be worked on from time to time by far less experienced techs than myself (due to our relationship with the business partners that use the systems) and this sort of thing could be amazing for providing a kind of inline user manual.

[–] Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works 9 points 6 days ago* (last edited 6 days ago) (1 children)

Unfortunately, this bill would actually do the opposite. While expert opinion seems to vary on the subject of geoengineering and its attendant risks, it might become a necessary tool for tackling climate change. The standard theory is that we could disperse aresolized materials at high altitudes that would increase atmospheric albedo (reflectivity) to reduce the amount of sunlight absorbed by the atmosphere. This wouldn't be permanent, but it could buy us time as we work on decarbonizing.

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