The Russian economy is beginning to crack.
The Ruble has a steeply declining trajectory, much like the beginning of the war, and the Russian national bank just increased interest rates from 8,5 to 12%.
The Russian economy is shrinking, 2 years combined it will be as much as 5% which is a lot, even if it doesn't sound like it. That shrinkage is internal and measured in the declining Ruble, so the real shrinkage is worse. Combine that with military spending for the first 6 months of a whopping 37% of the Russian state expenditure, twice what they budgettet. So we have an overstimulated economy, where the state is pumping huge amounts of money, and the economy is still shrinking!!
Somehow it seems the consequences have been mostly held from normal citizens and consumers, apart from inflation mostly similar to what many European countries have experienced. The state has carried most of the burden.
But the Russian economy is both overheating and declining at the same time, so when the bubble finally burst, it could be very dramatic. With a collapse of the economy, both state and financial. This will be a double dip that could collapse the Russian federation.
Russia is basically headed in the same direction the old Soviet Union was when it collapsed.