Because most people paying attention not on russia's side aren't surprised this recent surge in russian assaults is failing the same way it has in the past, it is easy to miss the gravity of this for russia in this moment.

The winter terrorism campaign against Ukraine was supposed to break the back of the public's will by subjecting them to freezing nights and no power, then when public support was already broken and shattered russia would launch one last massive spring offensive and scare Ukraine into agreeing to peace terms that heavily advantaged russia. Any worry russians have about the war machine being about to collapse conveniently won't matter then because russia will present itself as powerful right until the end and scare Ukraine into surrendering.

This has clearly been the strategy for awhile now, but now it has become undeniably a failed one. This is a big moment for russia, even though for Ukraine this is just another week, facing down another mass armored assault after mass armored assault.

Also let me extend a personal middle finger to all the journalists and "analysts" that confidently concluded armored manuever warfare was dead because russia had stopped doing it, they stopped doing it because they suck at it and now they are forced to do it again anyways. Everyone has been trying desperately to read into the tea leaves of russia's war machine to try to predict the future of war, and at this point barely anybody in the russian military knows what they are doing, they are drunk, lying, overconfident and completely incapable of making a modern main battle tank or launching a combined arms armored assault with any degree of competency.

Russia is not "returning to an old strategy", this strategy never went away russia is just barely an organized military at this stage of things and more than at any other point in the war this reality has become undeniable now.

There will be no spring offensive for russia, just a large increase in death rate for russian soldiers.

top 4 comments

sorted by: hot top controversial new old

[–] SupraMario@lemmy.world 3 points 10 hours ago

Slava Ukraini!!!

[–] homes@piefed.world 7 points 18 hours ago* (last edited 18 hours ago)

In the nonstop, grinding, nightmare news cycle over the last decade, the news from Ukraine is the only thing that gets me out of bed in the morning. My heart swells every time I hear about them kicking Russia’s ass day after day. I have even started eating sunflower seeds to enrich my soul.

SLAVA UKRAINE 🇺🇦🌻

[–] manxu@piefed.social 5 points 18 hours ago (1 children)

Also let me extend a personal middle finger to all the journalists and “analysts” that confidently concluded armored manuever warfare was dead because russia had stopped doing it,

I think in military circles there is a lot more admiration for what Ukraine is doing. Ukraine single-handedly invented the war machine of the next many decades and the payoff is already visible in the Persian Gulf, with the countries there begging Ukraine for help.

[–] supersquirrel@sopuli.xyz 4 points 16 hours ago* (last edited 15 hours ago)

Particularly in littoral maritime security Ukraine has made a blueprint that the world has no choice but to follow since the other agent in this war, russia, shit the bed so hard on the naval front.

Oh well, too bad for russia!

The Iran War and the subsequent closure of the Strait Of Hormuz only underlines how any great shipping power in the world has to figure out how Ukraine won the naval war in Ukraine so decisively, and the easiest way to do that is to befriend Ukraine and ask them directly... there is no way to get the story from russia they don't know it, that much is clear.

Part of me sees a slight possibility for a brighter future here where the Gulf States who are not excited about turning Iran into a failed state with emboldened hardliners are establishing important connections with Ukraine around C-UAS/littoral security/drone defense and that these same connections will grow into the apparatus that can decisively end both the Ukraine War and the Iran War without necessarily even needing the US to play the key player.

The Gulf States and nations in the region are some of the most powerful nations on earth, that is nothing new (have you ever looked up how many Abrams tanks Egypt has?), but what is perhaps new is Ukraine forging direct working military and political connections with some of these nations who may have a much more genuine interest in boxing russia out of the capacity to continue fighting than the US or even Europe does (depending on how hard right of a party is in power in any given European nation at any one point, yes I am looking at you Germany).

These same nations that see a future in tourism and being a global center of trade and culture may also see a genuine interest in boxing the US and Israel out of being able to destroy the stability of the entire region just to deny the future the rest of us want and I think there is a resonant alignment of interests possible here with the expertise of Ukraine and the immense political and monetary power a coalition of these nations can wield.

The world does not want World War 3 and right now that is what we are getting :(