AntiTrumpAlliance

If Trump cares little for strategy, this does not make strategy irrelevant. The risks of the non-strategic use of force extend well beyond Iran’s borders. A destabilised Iran risks a new, massive humanitarian crisis on Europe’s doorstep, potentially triggering refugee flows that would further embolden the far-right movements currently fracturing western democracies. Escalation could draw in regional actors, threaten shipping in the Gulf and widen into a broader confrontation.

Iran’s oil exports may slow dramatically – and could even collapse entirely – tightening global markets. That would hurt China, but it would also benefit other energy exporters, including Russia, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. At a moment when Washington is already managing strategic competition in Asia and sustaining commitments in Europe, another open-ended Middle Eastern conflict risks stretching American bandwidth and weakening deterrence elsewhere.