Canada

Of that happens, we cannot be forced into an election. Which means Carney can largely ignore PP for a couple of years.

Unfortunately by all accounts they do have a chance even with PP as a leader. In a late Wynne or late Trudeau scenario, the CPC could very well win a majority. Doug Ford has been riding the wave since 2018. If the LPC hadn't pulled the Carney rabbit out of the hat, something that was far from certain to happen, we'd be saluting PM PP at the moment. We spent a lot of time and money to take Trudeau out and prevent Freeland from taking over the party. This type of maneuvre isn't common. The chance of failure is very high.

Over the short term they wouldn't win. By the time we get to the next election, it's not so certain.

With the party shift, no one votes Con anyway.

It's really not surprising, it's hand selected delegates travelling to Calgary in winter... Anything less than 80% would have been shockingly catastrophic for him.

Honestly though, holding onto leadership is good, because he's lowered their ceiling of support so incredibly low. Yes his support base is large but he basically has no chance of getting the Conservatives a majority.

Was never even in play. For one, he keeps a firm grip on power inside the CPC and they make it pretty clear that anyone who goes against him will be attacked brutally and publicly for doing so. Then, on the voter side, if you choose your voters, the voters will choose you. The way they set up the leadership vote ensured those voting would be his base.

He and Jenni Byrne captured the party and keep a tight grip on it. Even though Byrne has formally been distanced, she's not.

I look forward to analyses. Was it a lack of clear alternatives, or is their base so far gone that they genuinely think he's their guy?

In an extremely friendly and loivng manner - 🤗 please adjust your expectations 🤗. The very least so you don't get disappointed, but also to be better connected with the reality of fellow Canadians so we can take appropriate actions before we reach the point of a large PP (or equivalent) majority. Running a non-profit social media platform certainly helps!

I'm having a similar conversation with some RL friends today.

Nah, he’s revitalized the party, brought in a new demographic of voters, and even gained the most seats the Conservatives have ever seen. Just cause he lost to Carney doesn’t automatically make him a bad party leader.

I think they’re counting on Carney to take on Trump, make some fatal mistake, and then swoop in whatever election comes next.

He won half of the elections he ran in 2025. And the win was a landslide with him getting close to the guy he made step down. So if you add them together he's actually doing very well

One where they hand picked the delegates

Voting was only in-person and for delegates. The CPC have over 600,000 members nationally. They had under 3,000 eligible to vote on leadership, so <0.5% of members choose the leader.

Tells you a lot about the party.

Compare that to the other party also about to select a new leader, the NDP. In their process, 100% of members get a vote on their leader, no matter where they are in the country. People just had to join before January 28, and fees I think are as low as a dollar for people who couldn't afford it.

Night and day in terms of democratic process.

Not to mention the Ontario PCs are having their party convention right now as well—meaning many members won’t attend in Calgary for the vote.