stupidpol

Considering the folks most eager to have a civil war, are on the government's side...I don't think it's going to be a "war" exactly. More like everyone else is going to be rounded up and exterminated in manageable chunks.

Low to nil. The whole point of ICE is to normalize this new, restrained American empire that preys on its citizens before other people, but also to incite hatred that eventually leads to civilian disobedience/actually shooting one of these ICE dogs down, so Trump can move the army in this state of emergency, and also stay in power. And once that group is dealt with the others will follow in fear. And that will be the end of whatever proletarian revolution America could have had. MAGA would cheer, the rest would mourn but walk the party line, and everyone would quickly go back to their lives and their distractions.

Either that or some Dem candidate is pushed as an alternative to "evil Nazi trump" (as if Obama didn't drone the shit out of the Middle East, and Biden had record deportation numbers, American imperialism and the boomerang that's hitting you now are bipartisan policies, they're bigger than them and come before them because the people who actually make decisions in the US have always been money people, not the average person) and everyone eats it up but nothing changes fundamentally, just the aesthetics and America becomes even more of a slave base than it already is. Or both! Regardless, prepare to be poorer and less comfortable, as many benefits from the empire's plunder you took for granted will disappear. You've had the advantage, whether you see it or not, because the bombs went elsewhere and the money came home, and some of it trickled down, and you didn't have to worry about your physical safety. All of this is changing, as global capital, with many Americans on board, has decided to restructure America and tighten the screws with its human resources.

Pretty damn high, but a shit ton of bad must happen first. If it happens it going be bad. I mean we got to have conditions worse then great depression. Also in today's age we would have a likely chance of being taken over by a foreign country mainly China and Russia. Who by the way are fueling the flames on sites like X and Facebook.

First midterm election ,otherwise trump wil use the riots in his ........

I don't see a realistic scenario where states have an actual chance against the US military without serious outside assistance, which they would most likely not get. Assuming the state governors understand the same, the chance of them instigating a civil war over what we're seeing now are extremely low, basically zero.

If the fed ends up going ham enough to get into a land war with actual international contenders, then I could maybe see blue states taking the opportunity to take a stand, I dunno if that's a "civil war" at that point, though.

I have a different story.

Midterms go bad for republicans. Trump says they were frodulent, republicans back him. Elections get canceled. Some states rebel, some generals too.

Most likely scenario is that rebellion goes bad quickly, because not a lot of generals back it. Rebellion is defeated quickly, people are taken and just go missing in ice facilities. Fully authoritarian Russian-like state enforced with crazy gestapo and ai.

That's the most likely scenario. I wouldn't say there is a small chance for that. I mean, the guy didn't accept he lost elections once before. Now he has way more power and most importantly: he does insane stuff every single day and nobody does anything - he knows he can get away with it.