https://old.reddit.com/r/stupidpol/comments/1qf2uas/what_are_the_actual_chances_of_a_civil_war/
So, this is a semi-shitpost because I personally think that it’s pretty unlikely. But I’m also curious what you all think. Tensions are continuing to rise between the federal government and certain blue states, and I think that makes it an interesting possibility to explore, if nothing else.
If it did actually happen, here’s the one way I could see it going down.
Step one: any number of blue states that have had enough of the federal government/Trump administration form a coalition and mutually agree that they’re ready to rumble. We may see blocs of contagious blue states form (e.g. the three West Coast states).
Step two: Democratic leaders in said states somehow figure out a way to consolidate power amongst the various law enforcement agencies and National Guard contingencies of their respective states such that these organizations could be effectively marshaled against the federal government. This would be an enormous hurdle to clear, but if these politicians could figure it out, then we’d have ourselves a ball game.
Step three: these states then take some kind of materially adverse action against the federal government that actually has some teeth, such as barring DHS agents from their territory by force.
Step four: Trump and co. lose their fucking minds and the game is on. We may see some troops from the DOD branches defect to their home states (if they intend to take on the federal government), although most probably wouldn’t…?
Of course, this scenario would require the Democratic leaders of those blue states to have gargantuan balls, which is completely uncharacteristic of them.> Anyway, like I said, it’s pretty unlikely. But, if it did happen, that’s how I could see it going down. What do you all think?
Low to nil. The whole point of ICE is to normalize this new, restrained American empire that preys on its citizens before other people, but also to incite hatred that eventually leads to civilian disobedience/actually shooting one of these ICE dogs down, so Trump can move the army in this state of emergency, and also stay in power. And once that group is dealt with the others will follow in fear. And that will be the end of whatever proletarian revolution America could have had. MAGA would cheer, the rest would mourn but walk the party line, and everyone would quickly go back to their lives and their distractions.
Either that or some Dem candidate is pushed as an alternative to "evil Nazi trump" (as if Obama didn't drone the shit out of the Middle East, and Biden had record deportation numbers, American imperialism and the boomerang that's hitting you now are bipartisan policies, they're bigger than them and come before them because the people who actually make decisions in the US have always been money people, not the average person) and everyone eats it up but nothing changes fundamentally, just the aesthetics and America becomes even more of a slave base than it already is. Or both! Regardless, prepare to be poorer and less comfortable, as many benefits from the empire's plunder you took for granted will disappear. You've had the advantage, whether you see it or not, because the bombs went elsewhere and the money came home, and some of it trickled down, and you didn't have to worry about your physical safety. All of this is changing, as global capital, with many Americans on board, has decided to restructure America and tighten the screws with its human resources.