https://old.reddit.com/r/stupidpol/comments/1qf2uas/what_are_the_actual_chances_of_a_civil_war/
So, this is a semi-shitpost because I personally think that it’s pretty unlikely. But I’m also curious what you all think. Tensions are continuing to rise between the federal government and certain blue states, and I think that makes it an interesting possibility to explore, if nothing else.
If it did actually happen, here’s the one way I could see it going down.
Step one: any number of blue states that have had enough of the federal government/Trump administration form a coalition and mutually agree that they’re ready to rumble. We may see blocs of contagious blue states form (e.g. the three West Coast states).
Step two: Democratic leaders in said states somehow figure out a way to consolidate power amongst the various law enforcement agencies and National Guard contingencies of their respective states such that these organizations could be effectively marshaled against the federal government. This would be an enormous hurdle to clear, but if these politicians could figure it out, then we’d have ourselves a ball game.
Step three: these states then take some kind of materially adverse action against the federal government that actually has some teeth, such as barring DHS agents from their territory by force.
Step four: Trump and co. lose their fucking minds and the game is on. We may see some troops from the DOD branches defect to their home states (if they intend to take on the federal government), although most probably wouldn’t…?
Of course, this scenario would require the Democratic leaders of those blue states to have gargantuan balls, which is completely uncharacteristic of them.> Anyway, like I said, it’s pretty unlikely. But, if it did happen, that’s how I could see it going down. What do you all think?
I don't see a realistic scenario where states have an actual chance against the US military without serious outside assistance, which they would most likely not get. Assuming the state governors understand the same, the chance of them instigating a civil war over what we're seeing now are extremely low, basically zero.
If the fed ends up going ham enough to get into a land war with actual international contenders, then I could maybe see blue states taking the opportunity to take a stand, I dunno if that's a "civil war" at that point, though.
The US government didn't do well in any situation with an insurgency. This is to say nothing of the sheer numbers advance citizens have. It's why ICE is struggling now that people are resisting. You need a 10 to 1 citizen to soldier ratio to subdue a resisting population. Ice has 8K. They can hold a small mid-sized city. Which is why they are doing suburbs. And the population is be peaceful right now. They left immediately when it wasn't. See: Chicago and it's informal bounty program. And lol that Appalachia attempt.
Sure bombs, but I think Ukraine has proven that's not enough to stop a determined population. The US military might be able to subdue sectors of the US, but no way would they be able to subdue even the top 10 largest cities. They don't have the manpower.
Personally, I don't think we'll have a civil war. I don't believe if shit gets bad MAGA as a collective will hold together. But I do think we have a high possibility of balkanization and/or a the trouble scenario.