No Stupid Questions

So this doesn't entirely answer your question, but it's worth watching this reallifelore video on Why Iran Is Dying, as it's good context for that background of what is going on and gives a frame for what's next. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8kSGH4I8Ps

🇮🇷 Iran – TL;DR

TL;DR in one bold phrase:
Iran is simultaneous geopolitical whiplash + ecological free-fall.

🔥 Immediate Flash-Points

• Security nosedive: Hezbollah, Hamas, Assad proxies left in tatters; Israeli/US jets roam Iranian skies at will.
• New NATO wedge: US-brokered Armenia–Azerbaijan deal may choke Iran off from Russia via the Caucasus.
• Eastern squeeze: Taliban dams on the Helmand & Hari Rivers cut Iranian water to a trickle → border skirmishes.
• Mass deportation: 1.1 million Afghans expelled in one month in a doomed attempt to force more water downstream.

💧 Depleting, Salting, Sinking

• Lake Urmia – Former largest lake in ME is 90 % gone; dust-storms surging.
• Isfahan – 23 Bm³ air-void under city after centuries of aquifer tap.

🏗️ How We Got Here

1. 1949–1979 – Shah‐Era

   • Hoover-Dam envy → launch of mega-dam program. Displaced ancient qanat system.
   • Industrialization forced onto the water-scarce central plateau.

2. 1979+ – Post-Revolution Float-or-Die Policy

   • Iraq war + US embargo → “Food-export-import is treason”.
   • IRGC-crony “Water Mafia” bloats projects: 80k wells → 800 k wells, 316 dams (2012) → 647 dams (2018).

3. Climate & Corruption

   • Fuel subsidies fund inefficient irrigation; 90 % of drinkable water now feeds ag that earns <12 % GDP.
   • 90 % pipeline leakage vs <10 % in advanced countries.

🗺️ Ethnic Break-points

🔮 Forecast

• Even with optimal policy, models: +2.6 °C, –35 % rain in coming decades.
• Iran already spends more water/year than Turkey (similar pop). Beyond end-game for aquifers.

✋ What Would Fix It (but won’t happen soon)

• Immediate well capping & metering.
• Kill water-intensive farm subsidies.
• Redivert IRGC-controlled cash from nukes & foreign proxies to desalination & pipeline repair.
• Accept food import dependence as necessity.

There will be chaos. Imagine Libya but ten times worse. Israel will bomb regularly to maintain instability and the Americans will be pitting groups against each other, with the Saudis and UAE backing ISIL and other extremist groups. If the Shah’s son does get into power, he will need to rule with an iron fist, with the backing of the US, as people still remember the tyranny of his father’s regime. Expect him to bring back the dreaded secret police his father used to have, with arrests, torture and disappearances. Meanwhile, the diaspora in the West, who are chanting for regime change won’t actually go back to live there again

Chaos. Since israel and the usa are involved. You can choose between Iraq, Syria or Lybia

My guess is that it is about establishing this supply line for a war with China and Russia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Soviet_invasion_of_Iran

I can't imagine that the protests succeed. If they do there would be a power vacuum which should allow for the independence of the Kurdish and Azerbaijani regions and maybe also of smaller regions of other minorities. Contested land, e.g. with Qatar or Iraq could also be taken.

The economy is shit. No matter who will be in charge, they will fight an uphill battle.

There is one example in recent history where the reinstallation of the monarchy went great (=as well as it could): Spain. The monarch let the country slide from a dictatorship into a constitutional monarchy. One that decided to pull the veil of silence over the crimes of the old regime but still a democracy. So let's hope the possible return of the Shah follows the Spanish example more than anything else.

I don't think anyone can predict what will happen in Iran. My gut feeling is that a collapse of the current regime will lead to a fracturing of the country, something like a civil war between moderates and religious fundamentalists. A mix of what happened in Libya post Gaddafi, Iraq post regime change, and Syria post Assad. The overthrow of the mullahs will only be the first step.

Reinstalling the monarchy is almost certainly not happening. If it did I wouldn't expect the new gov to last, the monarchy lacks the popularity and infrastructure necessary for that to be successful. It's tough to say what things will look like if the current government falls but some kind of civil war is very likely I think.

I'm ootl. Are they protesting to reinstall monarchy?

I think they should install the monarchy again, then hold free and fair elections to elect a prime minister. Essentially just have a constitutional monarchy.