this post was submitted on 21 Nov 2025
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[...]most voters that appear as “moderate” on the normal two-dimensional, economic-social ideological plane are actually non-ideologues — they are being forced onto the ideological spectrum because of biased analytical techniques, but do not actually belong there if the question being answered is “What political party would this person vote for?”.

It is easy to see how this bias crops up when you consider how other survey analysis of voter ideology is conducted. When a researcher asks voters 20 questions about a mixture of economic and social policies, and force them to answer those questions in favor of liberal or conservative issue positions, they end up putting voters into an ideological box related to those issue positions. Most so-called “moderates” get placed in the middle of the Democrats and Republicans because they are forced to pick positions on issues they otherwise do not care about.

Our analysis allows moderates to escape this forced ideological categorization by adding an additional axis of “ideology” — that of non-ideology.

As mentioned, this is not a surprise; decades of political science research has found that most voters are not ideological Additionally, as the salience of affordability and inflation have risen in recent years, it is not a wonder why voters have prioritized issues that are not clearly on the left or the right of the political spectrum. This needs to be taken into account when creating our mental models of voters. Not everyone sits squarely somewhere on the ideological spectrum. Some voters exist off it entirely.

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[–] furrowsofar@beehaw.org 4 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

This is why IRV and other systems that allow for more then 2 parties are important.

I know for me, neither party represents me very well.

[–] Eldritch@piefed.world 3 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Absolutely. People aren't one dimensional. Politics shouldn't be either. My biggest points are anti-authoritarianism and domestic issues. Even as an anarchist I will tolerate limited capitalism. Even if I would prefer and ultimately advocate for socialism/communism.

[–] furrowsofar@beehaw.org 3 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Frankly I can be convinced of a lot of things and there are a lot of reasonable solutions. A rigid system the is a bad deal for 80% the people is however not reasonable. Nor is one that divides rather then unifies. The current system has big issues with both.

[–] LibertyLizard@slrpnk.net 2 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Great post and clearly explains the appeal of politicians like Mamdani which have shocked the conventional political leaders. Despite being left of conventional US politics, Mamdani appeals to these non-aligned voters by speaking to the real issues they care about, and importantly, they don't care about his more left stances. This means there is no need to do things like abandon the defense of trans people, Palestinians, etc. to appeal to the center.

However, I think this does raise some important questions for how this winning political coalition (left+nonaligned) can govern. These voters don't have the knowledge or interest to develop concrete policy preferences--they care about attention to their economic issues first, but they also expect results later. This is why this group embraced but later rejected Trump and Biden. And it's why our country seems to be caught in this policy yo-yo between incompatible visions of America. Because the non-ideological voters aren't getting what they need, so the only thing they can do in the next election is throw the bastards out.

So, if a party can actually deliver lasting economic benefits to these voters, they might be able to forge a relatively long-lasting political rule. But how to do this is less clear because the economy is hard to manage and not directly under the control of political leaders. Things are too gridlocked to push through radical changes that have a chance of really improving things, and policies that are small enough to be passed won't have a big enough effect to mollify people who want prices to go down. I predict Mamdani, despite running a brilliant campaign will fail to overcome this problem.