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The model, which takes a conservative view of global climate action, was dropped in 2020 after the IEA was repeatedly criticised for underestimating the growth of renewable energy in its annual report.

The IEA returned the scenario to its outlook this year after calls from the White House to present a more optimistic view for the future of oil. The IEA has denied it reintroduced its new scenario in response to pressure from the US.

Critics of the forecast believe it underestimates the pace of electric vehicle take-up, particularly in developing countries in Asia, a trend that is already helping to reduce the world’s demand for oil.

jThe IEA’s report, which comes as leaders gather in Belém, in Brazil, for the Cop30 climate talks, also included two main scenarios in which oil consumption reached a peak by 2030 because of the strong take-up onof electric vehicles and renewable energy.*

In all scenarios, renewable energy is expected to at least double over the next five years. The outlook suggested the world was likely to build more renewable energy projects in the next five years than had been rolled out over the past 40.

The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) said there was now “irreversible momentum towards the age of electricity”, which in every IEA scenario showed that renewable energy was “growing faster than any other major energy source”.