I think 20% is a very low estimate. Russia is a huge oil producing country, with exports of refined products too.
But now there are widespread shortages of for instance gasoline, and Russia has had to even import that from China and Belarus.
I've seen other sources claim as much as 38% of Russian oil refining capacity is down. And considering the results we are seeing, I think the number must be higher than 20%, because I doubt 20% would cause the kind of shortages in Russia we are seeing.

So my guess is that 20% is a number they are very very sure of.

[–] Treczoks@lemmy.world 8 points 5 months ago (1 children)

The number also depends on whether you consider "short term" vs. "long term". Maybe it is 38% down at the moment, but they have spare parts to get some of it back up.

But they'll run out of spare parts rather quickly if Ukraine keeps up the speed. And then it gets interesting.

[–] Buffalox@lemmy.world 4 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (1 children)

That could be the explanation, many of these refineries have been attacked multiple times, and I suppose that's because Russians have had them at least partially up an running again.
But there are some parts AFAIK that are very hard to replace and takes up to a year to repair. So the 20% could be facilities that are down for at least several months.

[–] Treczoks@lemmy.world 3 points 5 months ago

Yep. It really depends on if you have to replace some basic hardware like pipes, tanks, and valves that you can do with sheet metal and a welding tool, or if they blew up the control center with the computers and the specialized hardware. Or maybe some of the specialized pumps and valves. Those are expensive, and so nobody has large quantities lying around.

When the Russians hit the Ukrainian power grid, the Ukrainians can get replacement parts from all over Europe and the rest of the world. But Russia has the problem that those parts are high up on the embargo lists, so they have to get either Chinese parts (which may need modifications on them or the controlling software), or smuggle the original items.

[–] Gladaed@feddit.org 6 points 5 months ago (2 children)

Gas demand is inflexible. I.e. small shortages could produce large price/availability problems.

[–] Taldan@lemmy.world 8 points 5 months ago

The economics term is elasticity. The demand is inelastic

(Not disagreeing with you, just adding a tidbit of knowledge)

[–] Buffalox@lemmy.world 1 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) (1 children)

Gas demand is actually very stable and constant. It's the constant part that makes shortages have rapid effect.
And yes there have been very high price increases too in some areas up to 50%, and that has not been enough to curb demand to make supply and demand meet.

[–] Gladaed@feddit.org 4 points 5 months ago (1 children)

That's what I said. Inflexible means it does not respond to changes much.

[–] Buffalox@lemmy.world 1 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago)

Sorry, I may have misread that. You are right, but on the other hand that also means dramatic spikes are rare, so it's a market where demand is very predictable, which makes the logistics a lot easier. So if shortages are only local, they should be easy to plan how to fill from other sources, unless the shortage is actually widespread.
So yes small shortages can have a big impact, but only if those shortages are on a larger scale.

[–] sirico@feddit.uk 10 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Had another depot, refinery and a chemical plant hit last night.YouTube channel Suchomimus has an oil refinery bingo running, it's getting a little full

[–] trolololol@lemmy.world 1 points 5 months ago

This looks very fun