The original 2011 estimates for the scheme were that the NDIS would cover 411,000 participants and cost $13.6 billion per year. Today there are more than 740,000 participants, and it’s forecast to cost $64 billion by 2029.
The government has set a target to reduce annual growth of the scheme from 22% a year to 8% by next year. However Butler described this as only an interim measure, noting growth needed to be further restricted.
It's hard not to be cynical about statements like this. The critically needed support they started providing is far more needed than anticipated, therefore they must scale it back?
Children aged under 15 years are over-represented in the scheme, making up just under half of NDIS participants. Half of new entrants are under nine. Across the country, one in ten six-year-olds is on the NDIS.
Butler emphasised families were not to blame. Rather, the issue is the lack of alternative support systems. The NDIS Review highlighted this gap and recommended the development of foundational supports: services for people with disability that sit outside the NDIS.
I'm struggling to see how this helps the budget that they seem to be worried about, rather than just shifting costs around.