I think it's just a matter of when at this point.
Not enough is known about these systems to accurately predict anything. But due to the nature of what we've been doing to the planet and continue to do ... I think stuff like this will happen if not within our lifetime but in the next generation or two.
The damage we've caused so far will take hundreds or thousands of years to bring it back to what it was before we started all this.
One of the recent climate papers on the topic (from accredited researchers but not yet peer reviewed) estimates "The earliest year (mean 10% percentile level) for a potential AMOC collapse is 2037 and the latest year (mean 90% percentile level) is 2064" and "Applying the same procedure to SODA and GLORYS results in 91% and 92% collapse probabilities before 2050, respectively" - which if proven to be even remotely true is not just concerning but actually apocalyptical - it means mainland Europe might begin seeing +40 summers and -20 winters in the next 20-30 years - which makes it practically impossible to develop infrastructure in that timeframe that can survive such harsh temperature swings.
For anyone that has kids or is under 30 and plans on trying to survive - as preppy as it might sound - I would recommend starting to think about underground dwellings and controlled environment hydroponic gardening asap.
You know the "best" part? As far as I can tell, each new study tends to refine the timeline estimate sooner (and not just because new studies are in the future compared to older ones). Personally, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the collapse happens within a decade.
This is where I'm at. These changes to the climate are going to exponentially compound on each other, and feed back into each other.
Like, we're causing a 6th mass extinction event, and people really think we're going to be able to reverse that and all of the hell that will come with it? Ocean currents are going to collapse, and you (not you specifically, OC) don't think that's going to snowball other issues both inside and outside the ocean?
We're fucked, our futures were robbed from us because of entitlement and greed, and I'm supposed to give a flying fuck about anything because why? Society says so? Society fucked us over, it could all collapse tomorrow for all I care, as a species, we fucking deserve it.
To be clear, I'm talking specifically about suspecting an AMOC collapse sooner, specifically because I'm extrapolating from a trend of newer AMOC collapse studies revising the estimate sooner. I'm not talking about predicting generalized doom because of vibes.
(I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just saying I'm speaking a little more scientifically than that.)
Sorry Leeloo, no badaboom.... it will be more like a quiet whimper then silence.
Frost fairs on the Thames are back on the menu, boys!
(Too bad about the accompanying agricultural collapse and famine, though.)
Back to farming kale, then. :)
I do not believe in this theory, even though I believe IPCC underplays the pace and danger of global warming.
North Atlantic, including norther parts, are hot AF. Artic ocean is warm AF for uniced portions. While sea ice extent are not setting records even if consistently low, they are clearing up very early allowing Arctic time to get warm AF by the time of fall.
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php
Shows an extreme record low in sea ice volume both at summer trough, and in this early fall. The theory behind AMOC collapse is that huge Arctic melting will flow down faster than Gulf stream pumps hot water up to norther parts of Atlantic. But the volume charts show that winter peak volume is also falling, and that the total summer melt is pretty normal. ie. the summer record lows don't mean massive melting. Low fall ice gains is just less freezing.
A slower gulf stream is still taking Hot AF tropical atlantic waters up to already hot norther Atlantic waters that are getting hotter on their own from summer sunshine.
If there is an extreme volume loss in Arctic one season, to overwhelm Norther Atlantic with cold water, it's likely gulf stream would accelerate again, and less volume loss the next year, and so rebalance. Or simply have ultra high Arctic ocean that significantly curtails the next year's freezing rate.
to discuss news and stuff of the old world dying