-28

Harris, Trump separated by 1 point nationally: Poll (thehill.com)

submitted 12 hours ago by UniversalMonk@lemmy.world to c/politics@lemmy.world

5 comments fedilink hide all child comments

top 5 comments

sorted by: hot top controversial new old

[-] jordanlund@lemmy.world 7 points 12 hours ago* (last edited 12 hours ago)

The usual - National polls are bullshit, no national elections, yadda yadda.

But it's been a week or so since I looked at the numbers:

AZ - Trump +2 to +6 This applies to unbiased polls like NYT/Sienna as well as biased polls like Trafalgar. It's interesting that the unbiased polls show Trump with a bigger lead than the biased ones.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

NV - Toss up. Tie, Harris +1, Trump +3 to +6

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/

GA - Trump +2 to +5

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/

NC - Trump +1 to +2

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/north-carolina/

PA - Harris +3 to +5

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/

MI - Toss Up - Tie, Harris +1 to +2, Trump +1 to +2

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

WI - Toss Up, Tie, Harris +1, Trump +1

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/

Plotted on the map:

Moving PA to the Harris column NORMALLY gives her the win, however in THIS case, with GA, NC, and AZ going to Trump and MI and WI moving to toss up, that means Trump is 1 state away (except NV, NV is not enough) and Harris needs two (WI + MI gives her exactly 270 which is what we saw last time.)

I will say, quite a lot of these recent polls are from right biased sources, 538 specifically calls out Trafalgar, but Fabrizio is also problematic, so is Redfield, and "Patriot Polling" seems obvious to me.

There's lots of talk about Republican pollsters "flooding the zone", so the results out of AZ, GA, NC may look more Trump friendly than reality.

[-] TransplantedSconie@lemm.ee 1 points 4 hours ago

That's exactly what's happening. They flooded the polls in '22 as well and said there was going to be a Red Wave and projected themselves to win the house by 30-40 seats and take the senate.

Vote!

[-] GlobalCompatriot@lemm.ee -1 points 10 hours ago

Imagine having, again, every advantage in the world, media support, celebrity endorsements, multiple republican endorsements, a huge war chest and somehow still losing to a carnival barker.

[-] MediaBiasFactChecker@lemmy.world 0 points 12 hours ago

The Hill - News Source Context (Click to view Full Report)

Information for The Hill:

MBFC: Least Biased - Credibility: High - Factual Reporting: Mostly Factual - United States of America
Wikipedia about this source

Search topics on Ground.News

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4936393-vice-president-harris-leads-trump-national-poll/

Media Bias Fact Check | bot support

this post was submitted on 16 Oct 2024

-28 points (13.2% liked)

politics

19043 readers

4032 users here now

Welcome to the discussion of US Politics!

Rules:

Post only links to articles, Title must fairly describe link contents. If your title differs from the site’s, it should only be to add context or be more descriptive. Do not post entire articles in the body or in the comments.

Links must be to the original source, not an aggregator like Google Amp, MSN, or Yahoo.

Example:

Articles must be relevant to politics. Links must be to quality and original content. Articles should be worth reading. Clickbait, stub articles, and rehosted or stolen content are not allowed. Check your source for Reliability and Bias here.
Be civil, No violations of TOS. It’s OK to say the subject of an article is behaving like a (pejorative, pejorative). It’s NOT OK to say another USER is (pejorative). Strong language is fine, just not directed at other members. Engage in good-faith and with respect! This includes accusing another user of being a bot or paid actor. Trolling is uncivil and is grounds for removal and/or a community ban.
No memes, trolling, or low-effort comments. Reposts, misinformation, off-topic, trolling, or offensive.
Vote based on comment quality, not agreement. This community aims to foster discussion; please reward people for putting effort into articulating their viewpoint, even if you disagree with it.
No hate speech, slurs, celebrating death, advocating violence, or abusive language. This will result in a ban. Usernames containing racist, or inappropriate slurs will be banned without warning

We ask that the users report any comment or post that violate the rules, to use critical thinking when reading, posting or commenting. Users that post off-topic spam, advocate violence, have multiple comments or posts removed, weaponize reports or violate the code of conduct will be banned.

All posts and comments will be reviewed on a case-by-case basis. This means that some content that violates the rules may be allowed, while other content that does not violate the rules may be removed. The moderators retain the right to remove any content and ban users.

That's all the rules!

Civic Links

• Register To Vote

• Citizenship Resource Center

• Congressional Awards Program

• Federal Government Agencies

• Library of Congress Legislative Resources

• The White House

• U.S. House of Representatives

• U.S. Senate

Partnered Communities:

• News