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Deflation Never Happens, Except Right Now
(nymag.com)
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this post was submitted on 24 May 2024
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With the interest rates what they are, it makes sense to wait on buying a home, even if you can technically “afford” it. My mortgage would be 60% higher if I bought today vs. 2 years ago when interest rates were a lot lower.
Except even then you can plan to refinance. There's tradeoffs- it's a pain and you have to pay additional costs, but if the rate is that much of a problem it's usually worth it. Plus the additional history of a few years of mortgage will likely help your credit score.
And there's even more context. You're talking about buying today- my parents had immaculate credit and a huge down payment when they bought their house in the 80's. Their interest rate was 15%. The US has had artificially low rates for decades, to the point where people are considering 6% and 7% to be "high".
Rates will certainly impact who can or cannot afford to buy a home of course, but the only ones who are deferring purchasing at all for that reason are people viewing their home as a financial instrume that needs return on investment. If you need a home for shelter, a slightly higher rate is still a way better financial decision in the long-run than renting most of the time.
I'm sorry to be pedantic but this is a pet peeve of mine. If you bought a house you would not have any mortgage payment. You (and everyone else usually) are talking about financing a house.
Maybe I'm the crazy one but when I buy something I like to look at the total amount that I'm paying for it.
If I wanted a house listed for $300,000 5-years ago and I wanted to finance it, the rate might have been 3% so the total amount I would be paying would be $455,332.36 over 30yrs. Therefore I would only finance if I thought ~$450,000 was a fair price. If I thought the house was only worth $300,000 then I would need to pay in cash.
Today rates are at 7% so a house listed at $300,000 actually costs $718,526.69 when financed. Do I think the houses I see listed for $300,000 are worth over $700,000? No. Do I have more than $300,000 needed to afford to pay in cash? Also no. Therefore, I'm not buying.
*These calculations are ignoring the down payment but the principle is still valid.
I'll up your pedantry with even more pedantry, colloquially "bought a house" is understood to mean "closed a deal on a house with financing" - "bought a house outright" would be for a full cash purchase.
I don't mind unnecessary pedantry where appropriate, but you're incorrect in this context.
And, technically speaking, when you buy a house (mortgage or not) you become the owner of that house - you're just also receiving a loan with your house as collateral. So, if you fully paid off your house and then applied for a loan to start a business would you consider your house no longer owned by you?
If we really dig down here your pedantry about buying a house becomes quite meaningless because the loan using your house as collateral doesn't mean you're any less an owner of your house - you own it, fully and completely, you just also have an outrageously large loan using it as collateral (granted it's a pretty special loan for a number of good social reasons).
It is extremely good to acknowledge how much that loan interest rate is effectively increasing the price of your house though, far too few people realize how much actual money they end up paying.
*$700,000 in 2054 money. By 2054 a new car might be $150k, and 700k won't feel too bad.
Thanks for the clarification of Time Value of Money.
I would disagree with you on the pedantry. There would be two separate transactions: a buy buys the property from the seller, and the borrower borrows from the lender.
The property is treated as collateral, but the buyer/lender is the owner of the property. Mortgages are a bit special different from most common consumer debt because of the timing- the transactions need to be simultaneous because you need to have the collateral to get the money, and you need the money to get the property, but afterwards you still have ownership of the property.
Whether it's a mortgage, a car, putting a latte on your credit card, or a multi-billion dollar corporate acquisition it's the same.
That aside, the rest of your comment I agree is good advice to consider, but it's just part of the equation. You're assuming the mortgage is actioned as plan throughout it's lifetime. However, the borrower has options. They might want to pay early and will save a lot of interest that way (maybe more than just interest if they have PMI). There's also the option to refinance out of a higher rate later on.
Also... You're comparing two different things by asking if a house listed for $300,000 is worth $700,000. In order to do a fair comparison, you need to do the same calculation for every house you consider and for the entire market you're basing your expectations around. The only houses worth $300,000 when you factor in the interest of a 30 year mortgage would be a fraction of that cost. Or if you're comparing to the alternative of not buying, then what you really need to compare is the cost of renting vs the interest you expect to save in whatever period you expect to defer buying for.
Don't forget to account for the rent if you don't finance a house.