My expectation is that there's likely going to be a rump Ukraine consisting of the western part that's most nationalist. Russia will likely insist it stays demilitarized, and will put a puppet regime there.

well it's safe to say that it will be a shithole for the ukrainian people regardless of what happens. Whatever sovereignty they had, it's gone.

With russia, ukraine will be flooded with russian investment, i have no clue what happens with ukrainian debt owed to the IMF/US/etc, might cause the west to invade Ukraine afterwards!

With the US, ukraine will be flooded with US and EU investment, on top of having a huge debt for the weapons and finance supplied by the IMF/US/etc...