Interesting take on LLMs, how are you so sure about that?

I mean I get it, current image gen models seem clearly uncreative, but at least the unrestricted versions of Bing Chat/ChatGPT leave some room for the possibility of creativity/general intelligence in future sufficiently large LLMs, at least to me.

So the question (again: to me) is not only "will LLM scale to (human level) general intelligence", but also "will we find something better than RLHF/LLMs/etc. before?".

I’m not sure on either, but asses roughly a 2/3 probability to the first and given the first event and AGI in reach in the next 8 years a comparatively small chance for the second event.