this post was submitted on 19 Mar 2024
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That's not what they'll think. Authoritarians respect power, not conciliation. Giving them back the money tells them they're correct and encourages them to do it again.
It's a child's philosophy. If a child throws a tantrum and you say "no ice cream", you can't give them ice cream later.
Entire question was about time after authoritarianism
Lifting sanctions is also a chip.
Honestly, money is fungible. It doesn't actually make that much difference whether Ukraine gets money from Russia now, but if it's going to be used during the war rather than for post-war reconstruction, then someone is gonna have to pony up post-war funds to fill that hole, because Ukraine is probably gonna need more than the amount seized from Russia.
If we want to buy Putin off for $300 billion and he's willing to be bought out, then it doesn't make much difference whether the money is booked as coming from Russia or us.