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this post was submitted on 29 Jan 2024
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They are on borrowed time. Chinese economic growth is investment based and now they've built enough condos to house their entire (huge) population twice. This will ruin the value of houses, which is where ordinary Chinese have their savings. Coupled with their poorly thought out demographic policy this will cause an insane crisis as the life savings of elderly Chinese evaporate while they don't have the working population to recover from this. There's this guy Peter Zeihan on YouTube who explains it better than I can. He expects China to be done within a decade.
I'm just wondering if they will attempt to invade Taiwan before that happens. They might not even be able to but with Xi completely out of touch with reality they might anyways
Clearly, a well versed Sid Meier's Civilization enjoyer. /S
If you stop thinking about the metadata (the financial part) of the system and instead you look at the real system in terms of resources available for ensuring a decent standard of living, you might possibly find that the working population can farm, manufacture and service its own and it's retired population's needs. China could make the reforms needed to adjust the meta to fit the real system that supports this standard of living. It might for example remove failed markets from parts of the economy such as retirement savings, replacing them with universal pensions. Of course this isn't unique to China, but such reforms depend on how firmly a nation has bought into the neoliberal ideology. My point is that in general, the financial part of the system never matches the real. There's always discrepancies (e.g. positive and negative externalities to name some) large or small. It's a model. It seems to me that we often make the mistake to consider just the model and drive real decisions and predictions based on it even when it drastically diverges from reality, sometimes with horrific consequences. E.g. the model says increasing extraction of fossil fuels is fine when we have scientific proof it isn't.
Posting this source which goes through some of the methodology that came out to China potentially having enough vacant real estate to house possibly as high as 3 billion people. A lot of caveats with that estimate, there's no official data available, and it's on the high end of a range of estimates, but seems clear they have way too much real estate either built or paid for in advance but not built (and realistically much of that money gone as these companies go under).
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-vacant-homes-3-billion-people-housing-crisis-ex-official-2023-9?op=1
Peter Zeihan is full of shit. He’s been predicting China will collapse in a decade for well over a decade now. Here’s a video explaining some of the basic mistakes he makes in his analysis.
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Everyone has been screaming China is donezo for over a decade. China is still the leading manufacturer of world goods.
Evergrande collapsing is going to be a massive hit but I don't think it will put China in the dumpster completely. Most nations have a similar debt mountain somewhere. Our own housing markets are in a similar bubble to China's.
The difference is that in western markets, (thanks to immigration) the population is still growing (for now) and the construction industry still hasn’t recovered from 2009 afaik. So you got the same number of houses for more people, therefore skyrocketing prices
No housing prices are skyrocketing because of cheap mortgages. Nobody would have the money to buy a house if loans weren't so ridiculously cheap.
The exact same thing that caused the crisis in 2008
Also China could accept immigration too if they were desperate. For now their focus seems to be robotics but if they fail to automate sufficiently immigration remains an option. I heard they have some empty housing complexes rotting away...