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Is Android's kernel holding it back?
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This is my opinion as a random person on the internet: no. The kernel only affects what hardware it can be ran on. Everything else that would make a difference to end users is basically done in userspace.
The thing holding Android back is its JVM layer between the kernel and the userspace. This adds overhead, meaning your phone needs more RAM or it will have performance issues. You also need slower default animations to cover up the increased loading times from this overhead, which make the system seem slow, especially when compared to iPhones.
I agree with the Runtime being slower. These days Android doesn't technically use the JVM anymore but the Android Runtime, ART for short, that actually performs ahead of time compilation to native code for the byte code for increased performance. Still, the Java Runtime it implements is very heavy and comes with it's own overhead, so native Android code written in Java/Kotlin is generally slower than native iOS code written in Objective C/Swift.
The kernel architecture does influence more than just the hardware it can run on though. Microkernels for example are generally more secure but slower than monolithic kernels
So, would it even be possible to change this?
It's possible to change anything, the main question is the cost of doing so.
Google has already created something called Fuchsia which is reportedly very fast and potentially more secure than Android. But Google already has nearly 20 years of an existing ecosystem in Android that they would effectively be giving up because app manufacturers would have to make new apps for the new system.
They've probably ran the numbers to see how much it would cost to perform the new roll-out vs how much income it would bring, and I would guess that making such a massive change just wouldn't be worth it.
Hmm... That's true.
What about custom implementations? ROM devs?