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this post was submitted on 14 Dec 2023
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Ukraine
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France has been ambivalent about deploying nuclear weapons for anything other than defense of La Patrie, perhaps strategically so. There is also a very real chance of a far right take-over in France, they're in the pocket of Russia. The far left likely is too. France is unreliable.
The UK however has been quite explicit about guaranteeing eastern Europe. The problem is that Putin consistently underestimates their resolve, and in the event that Ukraine falls, may make the calculation that the UK wouldn't respond.
That sounds way too familiar for comfort.