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this post was submitted on 05 Dec 2023
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I don't think that Venezuela's government actually intends to do more than talk and score some political points with nationalist voters. It's not going to invade.
Guyana's in a defensive military alliance with almost all the other countries in the Americas, excluding a few (like Venezuela). Notably, the US is in, and a collective defense pact like this this bypasses Russia's ability to veto military intervention by the US at the UNSC.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inter-American_Treaty_of_Reciprocal_Assistance
https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Charter_of_the_United_Nations#Chapter_VI_-_Pacific_Settlement_of_Disputes
I doubt that Maduro has any intention whatsoever of kicking off a war with the US, much less most of the rest of the Western Hemisphere.
The Wikipedia article you linked actually shows Guyana as not part of the TIAR, whereas Venezuela actually is.
Oh, you're right about Guyana. Guess they were one of the few that didn't join.
But Venezuela isn't in -- they left some time back.
Oh, thank you. That's good to hear. Won't the referendum backlash against his administration then, since it's toothless?
Or you think it's specifically to score points with those who already support his regime, just a hawkish declaration?
Still seems politically risky if he isn't going to do anything about it.
I mean, I don't follow Venezuelan politics, but I would expect that he's worded the thing in such a way that doesn't actually commit him to doing much.
Elections in Venezuela are next year, and it looks like he's not so popular at the moment. But if he can spend time before the election visibly taking a position that sells well with voters....shrugs
googles
Yeah, here's the referendum text. It doesn't bind him to actually do anything, just asks voters whether they agree with maintaining the dispute:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Venezuelan_referendum#Questions