1105
Please, not again.
(lemmy.world)
Edit: good to see I woke the shills
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this post was submitted on 15 Nov 2023
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He is polling above Biden in every single national poll somehow. Unless something drastic happens in the next 365, Trump will be the 47th POTUS. Americans have a really short memory.
This is not true. Boomer landline polls also had va going red and look how that worked out.
I think there's a significant portion of the population that is unpollable and it's really started to make things less certain.
Polls a year out from the election. They have zero predictive value with regard to the ultimate outcome. Any pollster will tell you this. In fact, they have been telling us precisely this, but maybe not all of us are paying attention.
These results are still deeply disturbing.
No presidential polls ever hold predictive value, not until we start to poll the electoral college about which team paid them more.
What happened to, "you can't trust the polls"? And, "see, Hillary"?
Anyway..
It's nuts how short people's memory is. It was just a few years ago that yahoos were invading our nation's Capitol and Trump was orchestrating a coup. Now Republicans are trying to convince everyone that wasn't really a coup, and have you considered BLM and scary trans people? Meanwhile the Trump camp has their 900 page plan to efficiently make the federal government into a right wing arm of the Republican Party.
Guess if Dems didn't want that they'd give another candidate a genuine shot, but ol' Genocide Joe needs his legacy. This'll be it.
Incumbents historically have a huge advantage, any new candidate would get absolutely swept by Trump. Most Americans are embarrassingly out of touch with politics
Especially a candidate with left wing politics. There's a reason Democrats run center-left candidates for president once it gets to the general. Those are the ones that win.
The current candidate will get swept by Trump. Or have the polls changed recently?
Polls also had Hillary stomping tRump. Polls shouldn't be trusted. Voting is the only thing that matters polls dont win elections voting does.
Yup, polls can't account for something like an "October surprise". In Hillary's case in 2016, that was the James Comey letter that was leaked by Republicans Congress. It had the desired effect, with her poll numbers dropping virtually overnight. He rescinded the letter, but not fast enough to make a difference. This was all prompted by FBI agents in the NYC office who were leaking like a sieve to the press. So if you ever hear someone grouse about prosecutors supposedly interfering with elections because they are prosecuting Trump for his crimes, remind them that Trump got a whole presidential term out of FBI agents interfering for him.
Unfortunately, the time for a better candidate was last election cycle. Incumbency advantage is too critical to give up.
That being said, voting harder won't ever move America to the left, that has to be done at the grassroots level.
At this point, what advantage? He's been polling worse than Trump. He's more of an anchor than an engine now.
With Dems there's always an excuse to do nothing and hope really hard for vague change later.
Incumbency advantage persists. Swapping to a new candidate would likely be worse, even if the candidate is better, purely based on electoralism.
Yes, the dems do nothing. This is better than Republicans, who do a lot of bad shit. Voting dem won't fix issues, it will just prevent many more from cropping up. What fixes issues is grassroots praxis.
I'm sure many people will be comforted by that when he loses.
Read up on the Ratchet Effect.
I too, like vague undefined concepts that obfuscate real potential solutions.
It's not about comfort, voting harder won't meaningfully improve anything, just prevent it from getting worse.
I'm aware of the ratchet effect.
Do you want me to list out every meaningful thing you can do to improve your life and the lives of others? Advocate, unionize, organize, volunteer, start a community garden, work at a soup kitchen, educate yourself and others, help someone in need, etc. It isn't that complicated, really, and your denial of actually doing shit to help and instead whine about how Biden is a Neoliberal ghoul (which I agree with) and therefore can't beat a fascist (I disagree with this) is absurd.
Republicans actively laugh at protesters. If people are protesting, they think, "I've gotta be doing something right to be triggering the libs like this."
/Grew up in a Republican household with all Republican extended family
In fact, the largest protests in history (to that date) were in opposition to starting the Iraq war. Fat load of good that did.
Democrats protest. Republicans vote. Guess who's running the show.
Protesting helps a little, that's not what I'm referring to by a grassroots movement. You can't really do much in the face of a bourgeois dictatorship via electoral means, the system itself is designed against radical change.