That the initial wave of migration is subsiding is very clear, we can see it in the growth rate of lemmy.world as an example. After the initial boom around July 1st there was about a week of daily growth by 3-4k new accounts. Since then, the growth has declined and now hovers around 1k.

This is a crucial moment in time for Lemmy I think. It will be interesting to see whether that big chunk of initial migration is enough to achieve if not critical mass then enough momentum to get the snowball rolling.

We can't expect another huge Reddit blunder sending folks this way (though killing old.reddit isn't inconceivable), so we have to rely on naturally attracting and keeping users around now by adequately varied content and active enough communities. That requires a lot of active users and I wonder if we attracted enough to get there.