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Iran warns Israel it will intervene if Gaza operation continues, report claims
(www.independent.co.uk)
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this post was submitted on 15 Oct 2023
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Probably not all that much, to be honest. Look at India and Pakistan. That would be the closest example here.
Nuclear weapons’ most important role today is preventing an all out invasion of the country. Israel is already a nuclear power. They could launch a nuclear attack on Iran at any time. They don’t, for obvious reasons. Russia could launch a nuclear attack on Ukraine. They don’t, for equally obvious reasons.
I started my career in Soviet analysis, and ended up knowing quite a bit about the role of nuclear weapons in foreign and military policies. In the early days (50s), we thought it would be possible to fight and win a nuclear war. I don’t think anyone thinks that anymore.
There is no scenario which includes Russia using a nuclear weapon against Ukraine that does not end with the end of the Putin government if not the end of Russia as we know it. It wouldn’t even need to be a global nuclear war for that to happen.
The same holds true for India and Pakistan, which like I said is the best analogy. Implacable enemies with religious and territorial disputes, screwed over by colonialism, and ongoing low level violence.
Israel-Iran is the same, only more so. The I-P conflict doesn’t have the US as an unquestioning ally, unlike Israel. I-P have about 150 weapons each. Israel is estimated to have 100. Iran has 0, and even if and when they start production, they’ll have 5-10. And then you have to factor in the delivery of the weapon, which would be the opposition between the Iranian and Israeli (and US) air forces, with predictable results.
Thanks for your insights! I think I learned one or two things here. Please comment more on topics like these, if you like.
Sounds good indeed. I spotted another parallel between the two conflicts: Both can use the same abbreviation. At first I was confused when you started talking about "The I-P conflict".