So what if RFK Jr. continues to run? Well it's possible he spoils Biden's chance at being re-elected. I fully expect the downvote brigade to visit this post and bury it, but at least consider what I am saying.
In 2020
Winner: 306 (Joe Biden)
Loser: 232 (Donald J. Trump)
Trump versus Biden? Young voters not excited about choosing between oldest candidates ever
The prospect of choosing between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, both more than twice their age, underwhelms the growing number of voters under the age of 40.
So how many voters are typically that young?
(who voted in thousands)
- 18-24 | 7,372
- 25-34 | 15,396
- 35-44 | 18,401
- 45-64 | 43,661
- 65+ | 37,086
To make this easier, that's roughly a third of voters.
- up to 44 | 41,169
- 45 or older | 80,747
Robert Francis Kennedy Jr. (currently age 69) isn't young, but is younger than Biden (currently 80) or Trump (currently 77)
Now, some will vote for Biden, and some will vote Trump. But could a 12% tipping occur? Possibly. If RFK Jr. runs, and saps away votes from Biden, it would only take 37 electoral votes (about 12%) from Biden's 2020 performance to put Biden at 269 votes. It takes 270 to win.
But there's no way Trump's gonna get enough to win, you say. He doesn't have to:
https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/faq
What happens if no presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes?
If no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes, the Presidential election leaves the Electoral College process and moves to Congress.
The House of Representatives elects the President from the three (3) Presidential candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each State delegation has one vote and it is up to the individual States to determine how to vote. (Since the District of Columbia is not a State, it has no State delegation in the House and cannot vote). A candidate must receive at least 26 votes (a majority of the States) to be elected.
The Senate elects the Vice President from the two (2) Vice Presidential candidates with the most electoral votes. Each Senator casts one vote for Vice President. (Since the District of Columbia is has no Senators and is not represented in the vote). A candidate must receive at least 51 votes (a majority of Senators) to be elected.
If the House of Representatives fails to elect a President by Inauguration Day, the Vice-President Elect serves as acting President until the deadlock is resolved in the House.
House
This data is from Sept. 20 https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/20/politics/mccarthy-house-speaker-vote-margin-numbers-dg/index.html
- R 221 | 31 far-right Republicans who have repeatedly voted against McCarthy + 18 moderate Republicans in districts Biden won in 2020 + 172 other Republicans
- D 212 | 212 Democrats
- X | 2 vacancies
All it takes is a party-line vote and a Republican becomes Prez.
Senate
This data is from https://www.senate.gov/history/partydiv.htm
117th Congress (2021–2023)
-
Majority Party: Democrats (48 seats)
-
Minority Party: Republicans (50 seats)
-
Other Parties: 2 Independents (all caucus with the Democrats)
-
Total Seats: 100
All it takes is a party-line vote and a Democrat becomes VP.
TL;DR It could be Trump (R) and Harris (D)...
Another likely scenario is that many (not all) of the young voters (and independents) simply don't vote. This gives older and polarized voters more voting power. Then it could become a Trump/Hillary repeat.