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Would a federated dating site work well? What would it look like?
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Wouldn't work.
Much of the online dating market is an oligopoly run by two main players: Match Group and Bumble Inc.
Bumble Inc own Bumble and Badoo while Match Group own nearly every other major platform like Hinge, Tinder, OkCupid, POF and a few others.
This oligopoly is the reason why mainstream online dating is an unmoderated mess filled with scammers, OnlyFans advertising bots and otherwise fake users. Said users inflate the company's registration metrics massively and sucker people into paying several times the price of a WoW subscription just to see who liked their profile. Major switches to mobile also make it much harder for users to run reverse image searches and weed out these fakes more quickly.
A dating platform on the fediverse would be an even worse experience, not because of corporate greed but because inviting everybody and their mother to create a new instance creates serious content moderation issues. Expect this platform to be even more flooded with bots, spammers, scammers and other bad actors.