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Taiwan is free for China - ram prices are going to go through the roof - don't understand how trumptydumpty's tech friends allowed him to do this. Oh well, the world may become a better place with China in the captain's seat; Xi at least seems more intelligent and stable than Trump.
Additionally, if China takes Taiwan, they'll be able to exert heavy influence on Korea and Japan, as a huge part of their import/export flows through Taiwan Strait. Might be able to get the countries to cut down on diplomatic relations with the West, perhaps even getting rid of a few of USA's military bases in Japan and South Korea
Because USA tech friends want that: they want the trillion profits from squeezing the worker class out of the means of compute. Once we are all slaves we will pay back the dividends tenfold. They don't care about China or Taiwan, they only care about China's and Taiwan's billionaire class, which is with them anyways.
You're assuming China can take Taiwan. Authoritarians don't seem to be doing so well at bullying smaller countries that have a lot of drones.
Very good point!
Why would RAM prices go up? The normal process for China seems to be to scale up and massively cut prices.
Not sure if it's true, but I've heard that Taiwan will destroy their fabs if invaded. Or maybe that a wargame scenario.
That's a potential scenario in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. I think it's extremely unlikely for 2 major reasons:
China has very little incentive to invade Taiwan. At the current trend, China can just smother Taiwan instead. China has repeatedly demonstrated that they can impose a 100% naval blockade on Taiwan and nobody has a plan for how to break that blockade.
Even if China invaded Taiwan, somebody would have to actually do the act of blowing up all the Taiwanese chip plants. That would leave Taiwan without it's single biggest asset in a post invasion scenario. There's no reason to think it would reverse an invasion, it would just remove one of their biggest bargaining chip.
It's a war. Factories get destroyed, skilled workers die. There's no way China invades and chip production continues without a hitch all the way through. Even in the best case scenario I expect years of lowered outputs.
The question was why prices would go up after China had control of the chip factories. That's an entirely separate question from how many of the chip factories would survive.
But it's also crazy to think that China would invade with boots on the ground. They've shown repeatedly that they can enforce 100% naval blockades on a moments notice and keep it up as long as they like. They can literally go back to medieval tactics and win via siege. That keeps Chinese military assets and personnel safe while also preserving infrastructure.
You're absolutely right that it almost certainly wouldn't continue without a hitch. The blockade would stop all the raw material shipments and all the exports. Despite claims that Taiwan would blow up the factories themselves, I don't see why they would; once a takeover was underway blowing them up wouldn't serve as a deterrent but it would remove the ability to use them for negotiations.
Guess who has figured out how to make cheap high end RAM already?
If China feints towards Taiwan, the Taiwanese government flinches, and the TSMC factory goes to in smoke, China becomes a top 3 provider of high end chips inside of the month.