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Trump says Greenland will be under US control by the time he leaves office
(www.the-independent.com)
this post was submitted on 02 Aug 2026
161 points (97.6% liked)
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I think they have (unfortunately correctly) realized that the prediction markets can be bastardized into a quick and dirty public opinion poll without needing to do any of that dirty icky work like sending out questionaires or controlling statistical poll biases
Worse, prediction markets measure what people with money (AKA the ruling class) think is going to happen. Given their higher access to information and people to more or less objectively process that information, that means you'd expect a decent correlation between prediction market predictions and reality.
Indeed, these are way better than a simple opinion poll if your goal is an actual prediction. People who are good at making predictions will be rewarded and continue to participate, those who are just going by vibes or whatever will lose money and hopefully learn to stay away. "Insider information" is kind of the point of markets like this, it's a way to surface that information to the outside world.
Some also have advertising deals with those prediction markets, so them saying things about it is really just a quick ad break in some cases 🫠
Indeed, I am tired of "public" opinion (which is more wall-street-type-dudes' opinion) being even considered on matters like this. I don't care if 100% of Americans support it or have resigned to it happening, the only opinion that matters is Greenland's, as unless they democratically decide to join the US (no chance of that happening anytime soon), anything else is an invasion plain and simple, no matter if polymarket says that will make line go up
And the US famously never does invasions.
I mean you should, because if a critical mass of Americans supports it it's gonna happen. Welcome to the business end of American imperialism.