this post was submitted on 09 Jul 2026
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When?
The problem with climate change models:
Climate science is science. It works on what's tested confirmed and very known. It is a method for being very sure and understanding pretty deeply before you speak confidently, and revising that confidence when necessary.
What's going on is unprecedented total destructing of an unfathomably complicated planetary scale systems from physics its difficult to model. We barely predict accurate weather a week out with computers, and that was before we scrapped all the sensors (defunded NOAA) and tasked all the super computers to making bespoke CSAM.
So there's a lot of things we don't think to include in the model, a lot of interactions we didn't even know were happening or how they would fuck up, and a lot of runaway feedback loops we didn't gave data to model. And a scientist with integrity can only add what they know is there. They can't add an allowance for 'shit we didn't think of, and we never think of everything' even though they reliably do not think of everything, because we're constantly surprised by things we couldn't model or didn't think of previously. The amount of co2 released when permafrost thaws was not included in older models, and if it had been we couldn't have known how much there would be before it started.
So the models, even the pessimistic models, will never be as grim as reality. They can't be. They're based on what we already know for sure, and cwe are looking at a flock of black swans' is not something one can model with scientific integrity. The disaster is moving too fast, with over a century's momentum.
This is an immediate existential threat, and if you do not exercise all violence your conscience permits against the people most responsible concluding every billionaire, extraction exec, congressman, right wing politician (jimbob down the street who rolls coal and works on an oil rig doesn't move the needle. Fuck him, but he won't move the needle. dont take his murder from the kids he's raping)
Jfc,all those acronyms,i though csam was some kind of weather related phenomenon...
We live in the anthropocene, and live in society whose purpose is, near as I can tell; the abuse of children.
So in a way it is.
That’s the trillion-Euro question, and the answer so far is “between 15 years and never,” but some researchers have said they are seeing early signs of the current weakening. It’s a controversial topic in climate research, but it’s one of lose “low probability, high impact” events that can’t be safely ignored.
I'm convinced it's "when, not if" given our collective inaction
Two days before the day after tmrw.
Take a scientist's estimate and watch as a select few in power with no self-preservation instinct divide that number in half.