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I'm not sure what to think about it - a risk certainly exists, but I can't put a probability on it currently.
I live in one of the countries which has been warned about a provocation - Estonia. Over here, we've been preparing for this at some kind of a pace (IMHO too slow) for quite some years. An admission must be made: both Ukraine and Russia are way ahead in mass production and use of drones. They both punch above their weight with drones (and both have considerable weight too) and have considerably more antidrone defense set up than neighbouring countries.
Russia manufactures an awful lots of drones per day. But as long as Ukraine fights it with an equally awful lot, Russia simply lacks resources for a big provocation, since Ukraine is tying down all their resources.
Russia has fuel shortages, manpower shortages, armor and artillery shortages, no surplus of drones either (they fly to Ukraine within days of leaving a factory). There could be a stockpile of 100 or 200 Iskander short range ballistic missiles, less of other types. On the background, of course, the Soviet-built strategic missile forces exist untouched. But they're not capable of being used with conventional warheads, since their precision is too low.
Meanwhile, Putin's popularity is finally dropping. Parliamentary elections are approaching. It's fairly obviouls that special services must be considering "creative" ways of taking back initiative. But I can't clearly see what they would hope to achieve with this kind of activity.
Hypothetic perspective from Russia: "let's f*ck around and see if NATO has resolve"
I don't see a winning option.
I believe the idea is that they fuck around in Poland, NATO responds meekly, and Poland therefore blocks Ukraine aid to not risk further attacks from Russia if NATO doesn't have their back.
But it sounds like a very stupid plan, agreed.