This was just sent to me....I don't do facebook.
Roy Morgan from 6% last month to 6.5%. This is after the 4.6% Verian poll late last week.
Momentum is building. It is looking very likely that they will get into parliament this time.
this post was submitted on 01 Jul 2026
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I don't think it'll be clear for a while yet, especially now they're being explicit that they will go with either National or Labour.
If this ends up being a change campaign you could see a bunch of voters moving away from Opp if its close in order to ensure an actual change happens rather than more of the same only hopefully slightly less bad.
Its not clear to me that we are in a change cycle though; NZ Fist going up so high at the expense of Act & Nat is interesting but isn't massively moving the dial back towards the left.
This messaging hasn't changed at all since at least the end of last year, when they were asked.
If we assume that Nat/Lab will be in the drivers seat approx 50% of the time each; having a party that will work with either side to ensure long term planning and stability is important.
Especially in 2023, we had a clear Left/Right divide; it was basically FPTP with extra steps.
MMP is supposed to be about compromise and finding solutions that serve more of the population; not using urgency to ram through unpopular legislation while you have control; which will inevitably be pulled apart by the other side when they get in.
I'm pretty sure we are in for a different style leadership next term. If Opportunity get in; there will need to be a lot more conversations.
The other thing that has be stated; is that they will talk to the party with the highest share of the vote first. Which on current polling is Labour. So change is more likely that not with the current numbers.