this post was submitted on 21 Jun 2026
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I don't want the USA to invade Cuba, but I don't think that Cuba could credibly resist an occupation.
Cuba is isolated from any ally who could offer military supplies, including drones. It is also fairly close to the US mainland, allowing for easy supply from the US.
What I expect would happen is that the US would force some minor restoration of capital to pre-revolution owners and install a government filled with a mix of government collaborators and Cuban-Americans with a mandate to transform the Cuban economy.
Unless the new government is wildly incompetent and corrupt, I expect that there would be enough stateside support to ensure that the new government is successful for the first few years. Keeping enough collaborators, which is something likely to happen with Trump, would likely prevent the whole government from engaging in an organized resistance. The likely dropping off the embargo will also allow an increase in economic conditions on the island, muting resistance of the rest of the citizenry.
Say hello to your new Presidente, Señor Marco Rubio!