this post was submitted on 01 Oct 2023
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Going based on pure vibes and ass-pulling:
Irreversible decline: We are here.
"The sick man of [continent]": By 2050s.
Losing most imperial possessions: A few decades after "The sick man of [continent]"
Minor Balkinization (secessionist movements): ~2070s
Major Balkinization (rump state surrounded by successor republics): 2100-2110s
Formal end of these United States of America: The rump state could easily truck along for centuries, especially if one of the successor republics manages to conquer the rump state and retroactively claims itself as a continuation of the rump state.
My vibes-based analysis is unable to incorporate climate change into its analysis, but climate change will obviously speed up the timeline.