this post was submitted on 17 May 2026
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I think you're right about there being entirely too much hype, and we're definitely in a bubble right now, but I think this technology is here to stay. It definitely won't have the current economic shape forever, but it'll follow a similar trajectory to the "web 2.0"/social media tech. Is that a good thing? Probably not, but we may end up being surprised. I personally think running the models locally will end up being the best way to use AI.
Agentic AI is mainly an entertainment technology being pushed as something that can take over professional responsabilities.
It's being pushed like that because a lot of investors have been trying to get a new Web (1.0) Bubble running - the Internet was the last Tech that speculative investor could ride to infinity and beyond, ending up having an impact on everything (mobile also had an impact on everything but it wasn't driven by such investors) and a lot of speculative investors in Tech have wanted their turn in the Get Stupidly Rich Quick wheel since 2000.
The social media bubble, even though it made a few people lots of money, was way smaller because its impact in businesses was much more limited than the Internet.
So for a lot of use cases where Agentic AI is being pushed, it's kinda like pushing using Facebook or the Rubik Cube for all kinds of responsabilities business environments.
The funny bit is that without the insane hype from that kind of investors, Agentic AI would right now be finding the niches it's well suited for, rather than being put in places were the kind of mistakes it makes once in a while can end lives, destroy careers and collapse companies.
Personal computers were a hype-bubble, until they weren't.
The internet was a hype-bubble, until it wasn't.
People having instant internet access to stock trading turned everything into hype-bubbles, and some of those - like BTC - are awfully stubbornly not popping - yet.
The Japanese commercial real-estate and US housing markets were supposed to be deflation-proof, but pump 'em up high enough and they will pop.
"AI" has "shown promise" since the 1960s. "Machine vision" was sorting and routing checks to banks for payment even back then, putting all kinds of clerks out of that job, into others. Same happened to telephone switchboard operators, "typing pools", and later transcriptionists. Back in the 1990s I stood in the FDA presenting my company's latest idea for a device, I stood next to a "computer vision for pap-smear screening" tool which was already, more than 25 years ago, out-performing standard human based pap-smear screening methods for false negatives by a rate of better than 2:1.
There are things LLMs can do today that they couldn't do a year ago, and there are more people learning how to use LLMs effectively, just like there were people learning how to do more than just play Solitare on their personal computers in the early 1990s.