this post was submitted on 04 May 2026
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For serious discussion - like your thoughts beyond simple "Russians go home" platitudes. What even is a russian theory of victory at this point?

First off - this STILL seems to be a war where their only goal is conquest and capitulation of the Ukrainian government to a Russian puppet one. But - how do they intend realize that?

  1. Terroristic bombings against civilian targets from standoff distance has never, ever been successful at defeating an industrial society. It's way, way way too expensive to maintain and doesn't hold ground.

  2. Russia's mechanized forces in mass have largely been wiped out and is cost-ineffective compared to Ukraine's ability to stop them with drones.

  3. Russia's infantry tactics is literally sending in small infiltration teams into forward areas, where they are eventually either droned, sniped, mined, shelled or outright counter attacked and killed.

Ukraine seems capable of increasingly automating their defense AND assualt forces to be less manpower intensive, and able to trade a little bit of land temporarily until they can kill the infiltration teams that bum rush positions in cars, motorbikes or on foot. The latter is NOT a serious or effective strategy for occupying and pacifying conquered land.

In the big picture - Russia seems to just be prolonging the slaughter and hoping to be given something in return to make it stop. But - that doesn't seem likely to work. No serious minded thinkers expect Russia to honor any agreement, so why WOULDN'T Ukraine logically look at the stiatuion and conclude that the ONLY way to stop future russian aggression is to bleed out their army until there is fundamental change in Russian political leadership.

How does Russia 'win' this war? It's hard to see. Things feel very endgame, but also stagnant since life of their soldiers means absolutely nothing to the Kremlin, when they probably know the alternative is that stopping the war leads quickly and directly to total domestic collapse.

Your thoughts please.

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[–] IsoKiero@sopuli.xyz 3 points 3 days ago (1 children)

They are manufacturing most of the technology that Russia uses in this war.

Also most of the technology everyone else uses. I'd be pretty surprised if there's anything on the battlefield which doesn't have something either directly made in China or at least made with machines using chinese components. Smarter Everyday on youtube had a video series while back where they built grill scrubber using only USA manufactured parts and even that was a decent challenge. And all they needed was some steel, few nuts and bolts and few plastic parts. Anything with a charging port would be much more difficult to build without chinese components.

[–] khannie@lemmy.world 1 points 3 days ago (1 children)

The grill scrubber was a good one. Apparently Ukraine has massively ramped up local production though and now has drones (almost) made entirely start to finish there.

[–] IsoKiero@sopuli.xyz 1 points 3 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

They are making a good progress and kicking EU in the right direction too at the same time. I'm not too familiar on how they actually manufacture their drones, but there's practically no options build anything only from European components. In theory you could team up with some university and get a handful of chips, but that would be extremely expensive and it's literally a handful of processors at best, so nothing at the scale any kind of production line could do anything with.

If it's enough to be 'non-chinese' then there's a few options, but it's still a long supply chain and manufacturers are in South Korea, Japan and (mostly) Taiwan. And even then there's very little to choose from without relying on chinese designs and toolchains. So practically speaking there's no way to avoid being dependent on China if you're building a computer of any kind, no matter if you shoehorn that in a drone or make a new line of laptops.