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Think about all the oil you use as a regular person- for heating, transportation, fertilizer for your foods, etc.
Now say the price goes up by 20%. Would you, in response, consume 20% less? Would you heat your home 20% less and eat 20% less and go to work 20% less? Of course not.
The estimated 20% reduction in worldwide crude production means, somehow, somewhere, as a world we have to use 20% less oil. Then the question is, how high does the price have to rise to force people to consume 20% less?
How expensive will it have to get to force people to heat 20% less and eat 20% less and drive 20% less? I don't know, but it's going to get worse, because we aren't there yet.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_elasticity_of_demand