this post was submitted on 08 Apr 2026
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Ok, this does actually have some analysis, but it rather conveniently leaves out Iran's biggest mistake: assuming the US would continue to be lead and governed by rational actors making decisions on real information.
How are there people still seeing Iran as being like this? They neither wanted a nuclear weapon nor did they try and intimidate anyone about it, they did literally everything in their power to prove they are NOT trying to be a hostile or intimidating force; Israel believed they saw weakness and pounced
This is literally:
Iran: Bans themselves from developing such weapons
Israel: Oh my God they're trying to make a nuclear weapon!
Iran:
Israel: They're just weeks away from it!
Iran:
Israel years later: Any day now!
Iran:
Israel decades later: Any day now!
I mean, yeah, Israel and the United States have been blowing this out of proportion for the whole of the 21st century (and before, too).
But this article isn't wrong either. Energy-grade uranium only needs something like 30% enrichment (if I recall correctly). You need 90% for a bomb. The higher the percentage, the more energy and work intensive the process becomes. Iran has been enriching to something like 60, 70% and they've been doing so for... uh at least a few decades? And there really isn't a reason to do that outside of creating diplomatic pressure. So; trying to have the benefits of a bomb, without actually having a bomb.
I've been somewhat trying to read on this today and it seems like 5-20% is what you'd need maximally for a civilian reactor. And that bombs can be made with pretty low enriched uranium levels with 90% being the sort of consensus for modern weapons.