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Here's a comment I wrote earlier today about Ecuador in particular but which I think is largely applicable to Chile, Peru, and Bolivia as well:

To expand beyond just Ecuador, my analysis is combining a few important factors that are common across Western/Andean South America right now. Some of this will echo what is written above and a lot of it applies in other parts of LatAm too.

The four Andean countries I'm looking at - Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru, and Chile - are all in a very similar geopolitical position right now. In more or less recent history, each of these countries had a leftist in power. Bolivia for two decades was lead by MAS, carrying out (imo) the most successful electoral socialist project in history; Ecuador under Correa from 2007-2017 successfully implemented many components of Socialism in the 21st century in close allegiance with Bolivia. They both became "Plurinational" republics. Peru had Castillo, a communist, removed in a legislative coup. Chile had weak-ass Boric and nearly elected a communist in his wake. Each of these leftist efforts, mostly legitimate attempts at socialism, were undone by US interference and internal contradictions. There's no need to dive in detail in each of them, but the important conclusion is that each country is undergoing a hard right-wing turn at the highest level imposed by the US with very little popular support (popular support is the reason I'm not really considering Argentina in this, where US-style Nazi tendencies are much stronger and Milei is inexplicably popular). Militarism that resembles the late 20th century is being re-imposed on the large indigenous, campesino, and working classes of the Andes.

In each country, to varying degrees, those classes are well-organized along leftist lines. Again, this looks different in each country. CONAIE in Ecuador and the post-MAS Evo-led movement in Bolivia are indigenous driven and, in their ways, committed to a socialist vision. The various communist and popular movements in Peru are collectively large and can carry out major mobilizations , and even effectively ousted the right wing president, with a leftist interim caretaker currently in the presidency. Chile is the shakiest case of these, but the new Nazi president Kast is already enormously unpopular after defeating a communist candidate running in Boric's coalition.

In South America, diesel fuel is extremely important to the economy and have a huge political influence. The small farmers across this region rely heavily on diesel for all their transportation. Mass protests in the region are often directly linked to rising fuel prices - not to mention being tied to explicitly political demands for democracy, sovereignty, and socialism. The Iran war is going to massively accelerate this contradiction exactly as right-wing, US-aligned governments crumble in popularity on other political and economic issues. This happens while Colombia under Petro is doing pretty good, he's hugely popular, and it looks like the elections this year will go in his party's favor. Oil reality will end up playing in Venezuela's favor this year, I believe, as the revolution on the ground there remains strong and in control despite the kidnapping of Maduro and the theft of oil control.

Socialist consciousness and the failures of electoralism are fresh in the minds of the Andean masses. As long as the US is entangled in West Asia, its ability to project power in Latin America is restrained - if it waits too long to withdraw from the Arab world, things in South America will get out of hand as the Pink Tide reemerges to swallow up the right-wing swing.

I'm a believer that Latin American revolution looks a little less revolutionary from the outside than it does in other parts of the world. Democratic systems in Latin America are actually quite strong, relative to Africa and non-socialist Asia, and the Bolivarian Revolution demonstrates that elections can have an important role in a dialectical revolutionary process. When you pair mass movements, on the ground-socialist construction, and electoral victories, you can achieve revolutionary change without quite needing to overthrow a government through force of arms.

I see the Pink Tide not as a phenomena that emerged and receded in a narrow time period, but as one swelling in Latin America's long movement towards sovereignty and socialism. While it may have been beaten back in many countries, it left indelible marks, permanent changes, and a lasting new Acutally Existing Socialist state in Venezuela. It remains more or less in power in the regions two largest countries, Mexico and Brazil. It was the successor to the end of the military dictatorships, and it was followed by what Vijay Prashad calls the "Angry Tide", the reactionary movement that we've seen over the last five years or so. The Angry Tide is a temporary condition. When viewed over time, Latin America as a whole has progressively moved left, secured more sovereignty, and asserted more ability to chart its own course forward, and the setbacks have never been able to outweigh to overall trend.

My prediction is that, in the next decade, we see most of the following play out:

1. Mexico essentially becomes a one-party state under MORENA due to their enormous popularity and electoral dominance, and they continue to pursue what is the most left-wing possible path for a country 'so far from God and so close to the United States'.

2. Lula wins re-election in Brazil and PT finally solves the successor problem with a candidate who emerges from the movement centered around MST. The right is crushed through legal means in a continuation of what's been justly done to Bolsonaro.

3. A Bolivarian-style revolution in one or two of the Andean states - probably Bolivia and Ecuador, Peru maybe, Chile as a longshot - establish new socialist states that are more resilient to outside influence.

4. Cepede follows Petro in Colombia, marking a permanent break away from the US. He pushes the Historic Pact and his country further left. Similar to Brazil, legal and legislative tools are used to dismantle major right wing forces.

5. Combining the above, ALBA and MERCOSUR get bigger and stronger than before and Latin American multilateralism builds a meaningful bulwark against US interference. If Ecuador gets its own Bolivarian revolution, then we see it work with Colombia and Venezuela on a Gran Colombia project that looks structurally like the Alliance of Sahel States.

6. Argentina continues to carry out disruptive new market-driven innovations in becoming the first Fourth World Country, and it acts as a gigantic beacon to the rest of the continent of what happens if you let the US run wild in your country. I do not think a leftist comes to power there any time soon.

The US accelerates all of this by prolonging the Iran war.