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Russian sources warn relentless Ukrainian Starlink drone strikes will collapse Crimea's air defenses within a year.
(sopuli.xyz)
this post was submitted on 12 Mar 2026
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Why would you think that? Ukraine is doing okay now but they have a lot of ground to win. Russia has made it clear they don't care about the cost to then and so they will grind on so long as they have any land, and maybe longer
Yeah but everything is in the toilet for russia, and they can't claim anything else, so I'd just dismiss what the kremlin says.
It was until very recently. Nice windfall from oil price spike should give them plenty of funds
That won't last and it is just a drop in the bucket compared to what they'd need. Also, that is just economic, russia is on a death spiral everywhere else too.
Total Military & Security Budget: For 2026, Russia has budgeted approximately 16.84 trillion rubles ($217 billion) for "national defense" and "national security."
Daily Estimated Spending: This equates to roughly $595 million per day spent on the military and internal security apparatus combined.
Daily Windfall: Russia is earning an additional $150 million to $550 million per day in fossil fuel revenues compared to its February averages.
Price Advantage: The global shortage has allowed Russia to narrow the "sanctions discount" on its Urals crude. Urals is currently trading around $62 per barrel, comfortably above the Kremlinβs budget target of $59.
The Strait will be economically unviable for 2-5 years minimum now they've laid mines, and their profits are only going to increase as Europe inevitably has to start buying more from them.
8 (potential) mines and you jump to conclusions...
2-5 years? Why not 1 to 100?
Believing the russian states numbers too lol!
And europe "has" to buy oil from russia, you sure believe the kremlin propaganda.
Lol
You don't need 100 mines to stop trade; you only need the possibility of one.
Full minesweeping operation across contested waters: 6β12 months minimum under favorable conditions
Insurance markets require a sustained incident-free period: 6β12 months after clearance
2 years is a floor estimate. 2-5 the likely range, it could go higher. Proxy actors funded by Russia retain the capability to re-mine at any point, restarting the clock
If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, the US is the only supplier with enough scale to even attempt to fill the gap. To get that gas, Europe would have to outbid Asia. This will result in energy rationing & industrial shutdown.
Focusing on the only point where you're not totally off the rocker won't help lol. A shame because those kind of discussions are usually interesting.
Putin is losing and there is nothing anyone can do more than prolong the suffering.
Wtf are you on about I addressed all your points apart from the number which is estimated by combining: independently observed oil price moves, export volumes, the discount at which Russian crude sells & the share of extra revenue that actually reaches the Russian state.
If you have a better number im all ears.
Before this shock, Russia looked like it had about 1 year of relatively easy fiscal cushion left. With oil prices rising due to the Strait disruption and a temporary U.S. waiver allowing delivery of some stranded Russian cargoes, that timeline is likely extended, possibly by a significant margin, wtf is controversial about that ? Oil is currently just above the level that stabilizes Russiaβs budget.
I'm sorry I thought you had more points, your whole idea that the straight of Hormuz will be closed for 5 years is actually your only point it seems and it is just not true. There are iranian tankers crossing it now.
My point was *economically unviable.