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Russian sources warn relentless Ukrainian Starlink drone strikes will collapse Crimea's air defenses within a year.
(sopuli.xyz)
this post was submitted on 12 Mar 2026
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Wtf are you on about I addressed all your points apart from the number which is estimated by combining: independently observed oil price moves, export volumes, the discount at which Russian crude sells & the share of extra revenue that actually reaches the Russian state.
If you have a better number im all ears.
Before this shock, Russia looked like it had about 1 year of relatively easy fiscal cushion left. With oil prices rising due to the Strait disruption and a temporary U.S. waiver allowing delivery of some stranded Russian cargoes, that timeline is likely extended, possibly by a significant margin, wtf is controversial about that ? Oil is currently just above the level that stabilizes Russia’s budget.
I'm sorry I thought you had more points, your whole idea that the straight of Hormuz will be closed for 5 years is actually your only point it seems and it is just not true. There are iranian tankers crossing it now.
My point was *economically unviable.