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Are you forgetting WWII? Japan was setting up for a big American invasion of their islands, expecting millions dead, and then we dropped a nuke. Japan still refused, so we dropped another nuke. Then they surrendered.
You're assuming that we won't use nukes, simply because it's immoral and a huge escalation over nothing. Now look who's giving the orders. An immoral pedophile who hates anyone mentioning how he's a pedophile. He'll do ANYTHING to stop people from mentioning he's a pedophile. I think that includes nukes. This is the same guy who used the phrase "We're gonna bomb the shit out of them!"
That's why I said "conventional", which nukes aren't
The netherlands surrendered after the bombing of Rotterdam by germany in WW2. This was with conventional weapons.
The surrender wasn't unconditional. Germany accepted a surrender which did not include Zeeland in the armstice. This includee any maritime and air assets in the region.
Also, Netherlands had an offramp by surrendering. See my comment about being on death ground above.
Its not quite accurate to say bombing alone, yhe only condition Japan had when they tried to surrender before the bombs was the emporer, and that would have gone away as the Soviets got closer.
That situation was different though. Japan was 100% getting invaded and they knew that when the bombs were dropped. Maybe not right away, in the very immediate term. Iran does not believe the US will execute a proper invasion as it has not been credibly threatened. If Iran believed that invasion was imminent, then the calculus would be different.
The Japanese fascists didn't give a shit about the people getting nuked. If they did they would have started the war in the first place. The most the nukes gave them was an excuse, they could pretend that's why they surrendered to make themselves look better. The only thing they cared about was their own skin. The reason they didn't want to submit to unconditional surrender was because they didn't want to hang.
The desperate hope that they had been hanging on to was that they could negotiate with the USSR to mediate the surrender (in fact, the USSR was just buying time as they moved troops to attack). This hope was prolonged because Truman pulled out of a joint statement with the USSR calling for surrender, and the reason he did that was because he wanted an opportunity to use the bomb.
The USSR declaring war is the thing that removed the last hope the Japanese fascists had for a conditional surrender. They were then allowed to save face by claiming they cared so much about sparing the people from nukes. Because really the only reason the US was so insistant on unconditional surrender in the first place was because it would sound more badass in the papers and help Truman get reelected. Dropping the nukes also served as a way to justify the costs of the program, and to intimidate the Soviets.
The projections for a possible invasion were all invented after the war as a talking point. No such projection existed during the war, nor was any invasion planned.