this post was submitted on 11 Mar 2026
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Showerthoughts

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A "Showerthought" is a simple term used to describe the thoughts that pop into your head while you're doing everyday things like taking a shower, driving, or just daydreaming. The most popular seem to be lighthearted clever little truths, hidden in daily life.

Here are some examples to inspire your own showerthoughts:

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Betting on nuclear Armageddon means you don't think it will happen. (lemmy.world)
submitted 1 day ago by Cattail@lemmy.world to c/showerthoughts@lemmy.world
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Thinking about how on poly market of setting up bets on nuclear war, or nuclear exchange. If you think it won't happen you bet no, but if you yes and win then most likely the venue will get destroyed and you won't get your payout or money you get will be worthless... Guess that adds another layer of betting. Assuming guarantee money would be worthless it would effectively mean losing.

Despite the inherent parley, seems like the person setting up the bet wanted to get the money of the people that bet on nuclear war happening

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[–] Rivalarrival@lemmy.today 2 points 1 day ago* (last edited 13 minutes ago)

I’m actually wondering how payouts for poly market works I’d assume it would be proportional to how much you bet versus everyone else. Probably whole range.

The payouts are established by the participants.

https://docs.polymarket.com/concepts/positions-tokens

When someone starts an event, there are initially no shares to be had. You can pay $1 and buy both a "yes" share and a "no" share from Polymarket. This is called "splitting". You're splitting your money into shares on both sides of the event. One will payout, the other will not. If you keep both sides, you'll just break even.

Presumably, you want something more than breaking even. So, you keep the side of the bet that you want, and you offer to sell the other side of that bet.

You could offer your "no" shares for $0.25 each. Someone can give you $25 for them. Now you have 100 "yes" shares that will be worth $100 or $0 in the future, and $25 cash. You could also offer your "yes" shares for $0.80 each. Someone else might buy them from you at that price, giving you $80. You are now out of the market, with a total of $105 back. This is "trading".

After a hard day of trading back and forth, you find yourself with good positions on both sides of the bet. You have 200 "yes" shares that you paid $80 for, and 100 "no" shares that you also paid $40 for. You can take 100 yes shares and 100 no shares, join them together, and sell them back to Polymarket for $100. This is called "merging".

Finally, you can wait until the event occurs. Let's say the outcome was "yes". Your 100 "yes" shares are now worth $1 each, and can now be traded at that price. This is called "redeeming".